AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 7/21/09
About this post: After an extended hiatus, this blog is resuming re-publication of regular updates on foreign policy and security topics. The post below is my edited summary of John McCreary’s informative and valuable, unclassified/open source NightWatch Global Intelligence Update.
Feel free to comment, if there are specific topics, regions, or issues you’d like to see more (or less) information about, as well as how often you’d prefer to read these updates.
NightWatch is published by AFCEA, the Armed Forces Communications & Electronics Assn. of which I am a member. Past editions of NightWatch are archived here in their entirety on AFCEA’s site.
UPDATES BY COUNTRY:
North Korea:
The Pyongyang government may propose the resumption of reunions of families separated by the Korean War, Yonhap reported today, citing a Minjok 21 magazine article. The reunions would likely begin on the occasion of Chuseok, Korea’s fall harvest holiday (comparable to Thanksgiving in the US), which falls on 3 October this year. The process would be initiated by North Korea’s Red Cross, which would contact its South Korean counterpart to hold talks on family reunions. The South Korean Unification Ministry said it has not been contacted by the North on the matter.
If this report proves accurate, it is the second sign of a slight easing of tension. The other is the reported start of talks to free the two US reporters, which appears credible. These tentative steps might signify that some of the internal stress over establishing the leadership succession has eased.
It does not signify that the North will refrain from launching more missiles or detonating more nuclear devices. Those provide leverage in establishing direct talks with the US, as the North Korean leadership judges such things … a separate agenda item.
Burma (Myanmar)-Russia:
A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman told RIA Novosti today that Russian and Burmese (aka Myanmar) nuclear cooperation complies with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the International Atomic Energy Agency’s rules. The spokesman said Russia stands by its 2007 agreement to build a nuclear research center in Burma, which will include a MW light-water research reactor.
Huh? So Russia and North Korea are helping Burma with its energy problems among other things nuclear. Russia is bit by bit making a strategic breakout in all the places the US has limited-to-no-influence. NightWatch’s working hypothesis for making predictions is that nuclear non-proliferation is essentially dead because it failed. Any state that wants a nuclear fuel cycle can get it … for a price, of course.
Pakistan:
The BBC reported today that the Supreme Court is set to evaluate the legality of a 2007 presidential order by Musharraf that imposed emergency rule in the country. The Supreme Court has constituted a 14-member bench to hear the case brought by petitioners who challenged the legality of Musharraf’s election as president and the legality of his dismissal of Chief Justice Chaudhry and other judges who had already found his election to be unconstitutional at the time of their dismissal. The bench comprises judges that are among the 60-odd judges who refused to take the fresh oath under Musharraf’s emergency rule and were sacked and replaced.
President Musharraf imposed emergency rule in the country on 3 November 2007, weeks after his controversial re-election for a second term. The higher judiciary, which had heard a petition challenging Musharraf’s election and had ruled against it, was sacked before it could publish its ruling.
The judges who replaced them were asked to take a fresh oath of office under an interim constitutional order issued the same day.
A ruling in the current case will put pressure on the government to take legal action against former military ruler General Pervez Musharraf for high treason, anti-Musharraf jurists say. The Army will not allow one of its own to be brought to trial, but the Chief Justice, whom Musharraf labeled a man of no significance, has shaken the system again.
Iran:
Protests: Riot police clashed with hundreds of pro-reform protesters today in central Tehran and dozens of people were detained, Reuters reported, citing a witness. “There are hundreds of riot police and plainclothes, beating people who gathered to support (opposition leader Mir Hossein) Mousavi,” the witness said, adding that “hundreds of protesters” were at Haft-e Tir square. Small demonstrations opposed by large numbers of police and paramilitary forces were reported in several other cities.
Leadership: A senior member of Parliament said the Supreme Leader had sent a letter to President Ahmadi-nejad telling him to dismiss his deputy, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, whose appointment was announced Friday. “Without any delay, the removal or acceptance of Mashaei’s resignation must be announced by the president,” the deputy speaker of Parliament, Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, told the ISNA news agency.
The BBC reported the appointment had provoked a storm of criticism from conservatives, who were angered last year when Mr. Mashaei reportedly said that the Iranian people were friends with all other peoples, including Israelis.
The action today is a strong indicator of a leadership in disarray, but it is not good news for demonstrators. The man removed was more conciliatory than whoever will replace him. This suggests Ahmadi-nejad was trying to back away from the hard-line hostility to protests that Supreme Leader Khamenei supports or Ahmadi-nejad misunderstood his instructions from the old man.
Venezuela:
According to a communiqué from the People’s Power Ministry today, the Caracas government rejected an Israeli accusation that Lebanese Hezbollah agents are operating in Venezuela:
“The Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela firmly and forcefully rejects the absurd statements made by Dora Shavit, director for Latin America and the Caribbean of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, by which she attempts to link the Bolivarian Government with activities by political-military organizations that have nothing to do with the political reality of our country.
These ridiculous statements are part of a plan hatched by Israel’s ultra right-wing sector for the purpose of encouraging and promoting actions of varied nature against the government and the people of Venezuela.”
If readers search diligently, they will find multiple articles with imagery of Lebanese Hezbollah persons in Venezuela and Nicaragua, according to jihadwatch.org, the San Antonio News-Express and other sites. The Caracas government denial is disingenuous.
Honduras-Venezuela:
The Interim government Tuesday ordered Venezuelan diplomats to leave the country as the international community threatened new sanctions on the Central American nation if negotiations fail to resolve the crisis. Venezuelan Embassy Charge d’Affairs Ariel Vargas said he received a letter from the Honduran Foreign Ministry ordering his diplomats to leave in 72 hours. The interim government accused Venezuela of meddling in Honduran affairs and of threatening to use its armed forces against Honduras, according to a copy of the letter obtained by The Associated Press.
The Charge invited trouble when he announced his diplomats refused to leave Honduras. “We do not recognize the government of Roberto Micheletti. It is a de facto coupist government… supported by weapons,” Vargas told reporters at the gate of the Venezuelan embassy in Tegucigalpa.
Honduras.
Zelaya, the deposed president, last night in Managua, Nicaragua, called for an insurrection by society as a constitutional right. In his remarks, the deposed president declared that the attempts to mediate the conflict made by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias had not been any “negotiation” at all. Instead, he charged, they were “an attempt to enforce the resolution passed by the Organization of American States (OAS) rejecting the coup d’etat.”
Confronted with the rejection from the negotiating team sent by Roberto Micheletti, currently in power in Honduras, Zelaya affirmed that starting now, the next step to take will be the organization of a domestic front summoning civil society to stage an insurrection.
The date of Zelaya’s return, announced as Friday, 24 July, will apparently remain unchanged. Indeed, at his press conference yesterday, the deposed president maintained that once the insurrection has begun, he will return to Honduras at the end of next week.
Computer and other fraud: Only the Spanish news services reported that Honduran authorities seized computers belonging to Zelaya and his supporters that contain the official results of the referendum on lifting term limits on the President … this is the referendum that was not held because Zelaya was given the boot.
La Tribuna reported on 17 July and others Spanish language papers over the weekend that several prosecutors from the Office of the Prosecutor General (MP) inspected the third floor of the Ministry of the Presidency annex. They found evidence that could establish the crimes of fraud, abuse of authority, and misappropriation of public funds for 28 June’s aborted referendum.
Among the findings were computer files with voter tabulation sheets filled in, three days prior to the 28 June date of the referendum. One sheet found by the prosecutors had the name of citizen Maria Garcia, of the Central District, and the polling place is the Luis Bogran Technical Institute.
The prosecutors were surprised to see that the sheet was already filled out with the total of voters and the breakdown of those who had voted for and against the referendum, as well as the number of undecided and the null votes.
In this particular case, the document mentions Table 345, with 450 votes in favor and 30 against, 480 valid, 20 blank, and 30 null, 530 ballots used, for a total of 550 ballots.
Zelaya has called them fraudulent. For once, no one disagrees with him.
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