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AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 10/27/09

About this post: The post below is my edited summary of John McCreary’s informative, unclassified/open source NightWatch Global Intelligence Update.

NightWatch is published by AFCEA, the Armed Forces Communications & Electronics Assn. of which I am a member. Past editions of NightWatch are archived here in their entirety on AFCEA’s site.

UPDATES BY COUNTRY:

Japan: Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa told reporters today that Japan is “definitely” withdrawing its naval refueling mission in the Indian Ocean in January, but might provide similar support off the Somali coast for the international fight against pirates. “It’s quite likely the case,” Kitazawa said. “It would be good to use our expertise of refueling somewhere else.”

Officials said that Japan’s future contribution to Afghanistan’s reconstruction would focus on strengthening the police, agriculture and job training, rather than the naval refueling mission, which started in 2001.

Japan-South Korea: Odd. The Maritime Self Defense Force destroyer, Kurama, collided with a South Korean freighter today in the Kammon Strait during the night on 27 October.  Defense Minister Kitazawa told a hastily arranged news conference that the Kurama crew was scrambling to contain a fire in the bow section of the destroyer.

The incident is “extremely regrettable,” Kitazawa said.  Three MSDF sailors were injured; the Korean crew sustained no injuries. The Strait is narrow and heavily used. Kurama was returning to port from a fleet review.

India-Pakistan: The Indian government today issued an official notice advising Indians against travel into Pakistan because of militant attacks in Punjab Province, where all Sikh gudwaras (temples or shrines) are located, Press Trust of India reported. Travel should halt until security in Pakistan improves, the Indian advisory said.

The warning is intended mainly to prevent Indian Sikhs from making pilgrimages to Sikh religious shrines in Pakistan, according to The Himalayan. The Sikhs straddle Indian and Pakistani Punjab Provinces.  The annual pilgrimage season has begin to visit sites associated with Guru Nanak, the founder of Sikhism, The Guru’s place of birth is Nankana Sahib, which is located near Lahore, the capital of Pakistan’s Punjab Province.

It is not clear that there is a specific Islamist threat against Sikhs, but the advisory also is part of the psychological warfare campaign that India is waging against Pakistan to encourage it to maintain pressure on Islamic extremists.

India-Somali anti-pirate patrol: The Indian Navy has decided to deploy two ships in the Indian Ocean to counter threats from Somali pirates, the Indian Express reported 27 October. According to unidentified sources, the ships will take up duty stations near Mauritius and the Seychelles.

Navy Captain Manohar Nambiar told the press that the Indian Navy has a presence in the region devoted to surveillance that is separate from the Navy ship already patrolling the Gulf of Aden. The guided missile frigate INS Trishul operates with international maritime forces off Aden.

The two warships bound for the Seychelles are the naval amphibious ship INS Shardul and Coast Guard offshore patrol vessel Varuna, which  were originally on a “routine training and surveillance mission” to the waters near Seychelles. Both have naval cadets aboard, but are responding to a Seychelles request to prolong what was a training mission.

Somali pirate depredations near Mauritius and the Seychelles this summer afford India a legitimate cover for maintaining a naval presence off the coast of Africa. These deployments will provide India situational awareness in the western Indian Ocean, serving a purpose similar to India’s base in the Andaman Islands at the mouth of the Malacca Strait in the eastern Indian Ocean. The Indians take seriously the name of the Ocean. Plus, they get to work with US navy remotely piloted aircraft and support crews in the Seychelles.

Nevertheless, according to the Times of India, the External Affairs and Defence Ministries are considering several options for combating piracy off the Seychelles. The government has not decided whether it should approve a “prolonged continuous deployment of Indian warships in those waters, like the ongoing one in the Gulf of Aden. “

According to the Times, in the last 12 months, Indian Navy ships have escorted 644 merchant ships across the 490 nautical mile-long “internationally recommended transit corridor” in the Gulf of Aden, thwarting 13 piracy attempts since October 2008. India’s annual imports through the Gulf of Aden are valued at $50 billion, while exports are estimated at $60 billion.

Pakistan: President Asif Ali Zardari has agreed to give up the presidential power to dissolve the parliament and appoint the heads of military branches, Information Minister Qamar-u-Zaman Kaira said in a televised interview 27 October.  The clause in the constitution that so empowers the presidency was added by former President Musharraf, as a key component of his plan to bless Pakistan with a strong presidential system of government. The National Assembly was a rubber stamp operation under Musharraf. In fairness, he did good things for women’s and citizens’ rights that would never have become law under earlier administrations, but mishandled the Islamists dreadfully.

Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari

Comment: In 2008, as part of the election compact with former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Zardari agreed to repeal Musharraf’s measures to re-engineer the government. Zardari apparently has enjoyed the power, but not the accountability. In addition his abuses of patronage have eroded respect for the elected government, whose chief executive is Prime Minister Gilani, not the president, who is head of state. Zardari has promised to honor his promises on this issue in the past, but this is the first time his Information Minister has spoken as his agent to a national audience. Still, seeing is believing in the case of Zardari.

The move would have implications on many levels, assuming Zardari executes this undertaking.  For example, it would restore the National Assembly to its Westminster roots in which the legislative and executive powers of the government reside in the National Assembly.

The Presidency would revert to its British model, of a ceremonial figurehead. That would pretty much nullify an enormous amount of diplomatic energy during the past two years devoted to persuading Zardari, instead of trying to persuade Prime Minister Gilani.

Military hostility to Zardari – for example, for having misstated in public in 2008 Pakistan’s strategic nuclear weapons use policy — would become pointless and misdirected. Reversion to a ceremonial presidency would relieve military pressure for political change.  In other words, it would reduce the threat of a military coup or other action against the President.

It would complicate foreign diplomatic initiatives which would need to be redirected to the parliament (National Assembly). The Presidential system is convenient as a one stop shop, compared to the parliamentary system.

Finally, it would give direction to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s political ambitions. In a strong presidential system, Nawaz must court the provincial legislators as well as the national assembly because in combination they make up the electoral college for the president.  In a restored parliamentary system, Nawaz only needs to get elected to the National Assembly. From there he can do all that would be necessary to become prime minister, including changing constitutional term limits on holding the office of the prime minister.

Stay tuned to this issue because it significantly affects US tactics in dealing with Pakistan, though the administration might not yet appreciate that. Again, assuming Zardari does not renege.

Afghanistan: Gunmen attacked a guest house used by U.N. staff in the Afghan capital of Kabul early Wednesday, killing at least seven people including three U.N. staff, officials said. Heavy gunfire reverberated through the streets shortly after dawn and a large plume of smoke rose over the city following the attack in the Shar-e-Naw district. Kabul police chief Abdul Rahman said seven people were killed, including some attackers, according to The Associated Press.

U.N. spokesman Adrian Edwards confirmed that three U.N. staff were among the dead and one was seriously wounded. He said 20 U.N. staff were known to be registered there, but he was unsure whether all were there at the time of the attack.

Woman casts her ballot in 2009 Afghan presidential elections

Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid claimed responsibility for the attack in a telephone call to The Associated Press, saying three militants with suicide vests, grenades and machine guns carried out the assault.  He said three days ago the Taliban issued a statement threatening anyone working on the 7 November runoff election between President Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah. The Taliban said, “This is our first attack.”

The continuing high level of Taliban and anti-government attacks in late October is a direct reaction to the run-off elections on 7 November.  Mullah Omar and his acolytes failed to stop the election in August and are pleased to have a second chance, apparently.

NightWatch question: Do readers think a “more legitimate” government will result from the runoff election on 7 November? Feedback is invited; please include your reasoning and/or evidence.

The Associated Press published a somewhat counter-intuitive analytical commentary by a Serbian expert –the Serbs actually have experience fighting Muslim insurgents, after their own fashion.

There are already more than 100,000 international troops in Afghanistan working with 200,000 Afghan security forces and police. It adds up to a 12-1 numerical advantage over Taliban rebels, but it hasn’t led to anything close to victory.

Now, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan is asking for tens of thousands more troops to stem the escalating insurgency, raising the question of how many more troops it would take to succeed.

The commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, says the extra forces are needed to implement a new strategy that focuses on protecting civilians and depriving the militants of popular support in a country where tribal militias may be Taliban today and farmers tomorrow. The

Taliban rebels are estimated to number no more than 25,000. Ljubomir Stojadinovic, a military analyst and guerrilla warfare expert from Serbia, said that although McChrystal’s reinforcements would lift the ratio to 20-1 or more, they would prove counterproductive.

“It’s impossible to regain the initiative by introducing more foreign forces, which will only breed more resentment and more recruits for the enemy,” he said. “The Soviets tried the exact same thing in Afghanistan in the 1980s with disastrous results.” There are currently about 104,000 international troops in Afghanistan, including about 68,000 Americans. Afghan security forces consist of 94,000 troops supported by a similar number of police, bringing the total Allied force to close to 300,000 members

The problem with the Serb’s analysis is the gross numbers do not tell the story. The actual numbers of NATO/ISAF combat soldiers compared to Taliban part-time fighters is probably closer to two-to-one, at best. The number of policemen willing and capable of holding gains achieved by the combat forces is not worth calculating because in every district they are outnumbered by the Taliban and anti-government Pashtun fighters who live in the same districts.

The lessons of Indian operations in Kashmir and Sri Lankan operations against the Tamils indicate that force ratios need to be between 50 and 100 to one to ensure success. Those ratios include combat and holding forces

Iran: Today’s installment of the Iranian slow roll is an announcement that Iran can accept the Russian enrichment proposals with significant changes. Um, that makes the Iranian statement a rejection followed by a counter-proposal.

Muhammad Ali defeats George Forman (1974) with “rope-a-dope” tactics

Note: Legendary boxing champion Muhammad Ali had a technique he called “rope-a-dope,” in which he would use various deception techniques in the ring to maneuver his opponent into a blistering facial beating that was almost inescapable. The “dopes” fell for it almost every time.

Thanks to a brilliant reader for suggesting the explanation of the term rope-a-dope. It perfectly describes Iranian nuclear diplomatic maneuvers.

Ukraine: Former Prime Minister Yanukovych announced today that if re-elected he would make Ukraine strictly neutral and eliminate conscription for the armed forces.

Italy-Afghanistan: For the record. The Italian government announced 400 Italian soldiers will be home by Christmas

Nigeria-China: Nigeria signed a $875 million deal with the Chinese company China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation to build a 125-mile rail line between Abuja and the northern city of Kaduna, Agence France-Pressse and China Daily reported 27 October.  The Chinese government has provided a $500 million loan to Nigeria for the project, which is scheduled to be built over the next three years.

Other segments of the railroad will link Kaduna in the north to Lagos, the former capital, on the coast, as the Chinese said, in a seamless transportation system by 2020. For old hands this will look remarkably like the TANZAM railroad during Mao’s era. The difference is that socialist solidarity has been replaced by economic imperialism. China is doing the same thing in Afghanistan, building a railroad in return for control of the largest copper mine on earth at Aymak.

Tags: 4GW, AFCEA, Afghanistan, China, COIN, democracy, diplomacy, elections, foreign policy, George Foreman, global, India, intelligence, Japan, Kabul, Kitazawa, Korea, McCreary, Muhammad Ali, Nigeria, NightWatch, pakistan, pashtun, planetrussell, rope-a-dope, Sikhs, taliban, TANZAM, Zadari

AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 1/17 – 1/18/09

About this post: Below is my edited summary of John McCreary’s immensely informative and valuable, unclassified NightWatch Global Intelligence Update. NightWatch is published by AFCEA, the Armed Forces Communications & Electronics Assn., of which I am a member. Past editions of NightWatch are archived here in their entirety on AFCEA’s site.

Summary: Continued verbal bellicosity by North Korea and the latest on the Israel-Gaza conflict lead the weekend report for Saturday-Sunday.

Highlights, by Country

North Korea (DPRK):

An unsigned statement by a uniformed spokesman for the General Staff today raised political tension between North and South Korea. This is the second bellicose statement by the DPRK in two days. On Friday, the North insisted that it will boost its nuclear deterrent and maintain its nuclear weapons as long as it remains under a nuclear threat.

NightWatch has studied today’s statement in detail. It carries a credible threat of incidents at sea off the west coast, but omits many of the usual terms of threat.

1. Timing of the statement: In the last week, the North offered to send a top diplomat to the US inauguration. Two days that was rejected, it issued the strong statement about retaining nuclear weapons directed at the US. The next day, today, it escalated with a threatening statement against the Republic of Korea (ROK). The sequence betrays pique over the diplomatic snub. The quick publication of bellicose statements against the US and its proxy signify the North had these in preparation in the event of rejection. That implies it had a separate set of statements ready had the US accepted what the North considered a generous gesture of conciliation.
   • NightWatch readers were advised to expect the North to react strongly to the snub. The statements have attached important positions of the US and the ROK. Diplomacy has been reset to the starting point.
   • The other aspect of timing is the North has tried to set itself at the top of the new US administration’s agenda for weeks. Readers will recall the last minute blitz to make some kind of breakthrough in the Six Party venue a few weeks back. The offer to send a top diplomat was part of that initiative, but the Israeli caper in Gaza knocked the North off the front page.
   • They tried gestures of conciliation, now they are trying hard line tactics. These are not policy differences just different tactics for getting the attention of the US administration. It is important to the North Korean leaders’ self image that they show they can force the US to pay attention to them. And they can.
2. Authority of the statement: The North has a stair case hierarchy of statements from signed commentaries to statement by the top party or government organizations. Unsigned statements on behalf of high level organizations are in the upper middle. They are not the highest level. A statement by a clearly identified Vice Marshal of the Korean Peoples Army – such as Minister Vice Marshal Kim Il-chol – on behalf of the Ministry of the Peoples Armed Forces is the highest statement from the military by the military hierarchy.
   • The last statement issued by a Vice Marshal on behalf of the Ministry was issued in 1988 before the Seoul Olympics and threatened to start a second Korean War. But even that is not the most authoritative military statement. A statement by a Vice chairman of the National Defense Commission, such as by Vice Minister Cho Myong-rok or Vice Marshal Kim Yong-chun, would vastly more authoritative.
3. Comments on themes: Over half the statement is a recitation of the wrongs the North claims it has suffered from the hardline government of ROK President Li and from the US. The litany of wrongs is a recap of various military announcements by Allied forces during the past year. In typical reversal style, the litany of wrongs by the South forces the North to make a change of some kinds. This is vintage communist cant. They always present themselves as patient and as never having a choice, but to respond at the end of their patience. Their self image requires they appear to be the reasonable party acting prudently.
   • After the recitation of wrongs, the statement conforms to the normal structure of such statements by narrowing the issue. The issue is the 60 year old dispute over the seaward extension of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) down the middle of the Demilitarized Zone on the peninsula. The North has argued for years over a more southward extension of the MDL and does so in today’s statement. The UN forces have used a UN drawn line called the Northern Limit Line (NLL) as the sea boundary of the west coast.
   • The essential difference is that some South Korean occupied islands would lie within North Korean claimed territorial waters under the North’s proposal. Using the NLL as the boundary, they are within South Korean waters. The NLL, however, restricts the North’s use of Haeju port and adjacent coastal regions. The dispute flares every summer during blue crab fishing season.
   • The statement complains about routine South Korean intrusions into North Korean seas. The South denied any such intrusions today, but routine operations below the NLL would put South Korean ships inside some areas claimed by North Korea, using the MDL. In other words, there is no specific action apparent in public domain reporting to justify the North’s statement, other than pique over being snubbed.
4. Significant omissions: The statement carries no threat against the ROK held off shore islands. It carries no time when all of this will take place. Even the adoption of the all out confrontation posture coincides with the winter training cycle. The North has often adopted “postures” to raise tension, even though that is entirely its business. The really threatening statements require action by the South without which the North has no choice but to retaliate, and the verbs are all present tense. These are mainly future tense without a time term, measured in weeks or days, for example, or pegged to some future event. Except for a change in posture, the North has embraced no commitment to do anything in any time frame.
   • The statement also lacks the usual blood and guts tone of the really belligerent statements that increase tension across the Peninsular. This focuses primarily on the disputed area off the west coast.
5. The threat: If South Korean ships and craft enter the sea area north of the extended Military Demarcation Line, they should expect to receive North Korean gunfire without warning. There is no language indicating the North intends to start a war. This is not a new threat, but it is more pointed and explicit. Taken together, the three actions suggest the North will try to contrive an incident to prove their point and to get the US’ attention during inauguration week apparently.
   • Thus, a general increase in readiness signals intent for specific action. For example, during the 1976 tree cutting incident in the Joint Security Area at Panmunjom, UN Command forces were raised to full combat readiness, before the UN Command team entered the security area and cut the offending tree to the ground. The adoption of the increased readiness posture was the unambiguous indicator that the UN Command intended to take action in the context of that crisis, i.e., the tree cutting.
   • The same practices are true of North Korea. They are contriving a crisis and showing by their behavior that they have decided to do some limited violence if the opportunity arises in the area of dispute they have selected. Their intention is not general war, but, as is typical for them, they are prepared for escalation.
   • The diplomatic snub last week appears to underlie this quick change in tone and the succession of statements. Today’s announcement puts the North under self-imposed pressure to prove it means what it says. Any time Tuesday would be a good time for it to make its point.

South Korea:

The military called a border alert today after North Korea issued its statement, according to Yonhap and Agence France-Presse. The ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff ordered intensified guards from the army, navy and air force and increased reconnaissance flights by spy planes, a Joint Chiefs spokesman said. South Korean President Lee Myung Bak was briefed on Pyongyang’s statement at an emergency meeting.

Israel:

Today Israeli Prime Minister Olmert called [for] a unilateral cease-fire to begin on 18 January, international media reported. The goals of Israel’s Operation Cast Lead “were met in their entirety, and even beyond,” Olmert said, adding that Hamas’ capabilities had been seriously damaged. His announcement came after Israel’s National Security Cabinet voted in favor of the cease-fire.

Mr. McCreary summarizes the Israeli exit strategy, as he sees it: Declare victory and depart. He opines: Readers should have confidence that the tunnels in the southern access corridor to the Gaza Strip will have continued attention in the coming weeks.

Tags: AFCEA, DC, diplomacy, dprk, foreign affairs, gaza, International, israel, McCreary, NightWatch, north korea, planetrussell, rok, Security, south korea, Washington