PlanetRussell.net | Michael J. Russell

NightWatch

For the Night of 19 August 2010

South Korea-US: Update. The aircraft carrier USS George Washington probably will not participate in joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea next month because they will feature anti-submarine warfare operations, according to an unnamed South Korean National Defense Ministry source. Instead, the US might send at least one Aegis-equipped destroyer. The exercise will be “significantly” scaled down, according to the source.

Comment. A decision apparently has been made to not provoke China and to not permit the presence of a US aircraft carrier in the Yellow Sea [to] jeopardize a possible resumption of six party nuclear talks, described below. Great powers gain more respect by acting like great powers than by subtlety and tailoring. When a great power does not conform to expectations of great power behavior, middle powers get confused and then aggressive. Small powers get afraid of middle powers. See Iraq below.

North Korea-China: Update. North Korea and China agreed on 19 August that mechanical failure and loss of direction caused a North Korean fighter aircraft to enter Chinese airspace and crash in Liaoning province, Xinhua reported, citing unnamed departmental investigations into the incident. North Korea expressed its regret to China over the accident.

This terse statement does not answer a fraction of the questions deriving from the location and manner of this crash in China, but it puts further public inquiry to rest. That is its purpose.

China-North Korea: Wu Dawei, China’s special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs, visited North Korea 16-18 August, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced. Wu met officials in Pyongyang to discuss maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and restarting the six-party nuclear talks, according to a ministry press release.

The Korean Central News Agency announced, “The two sides had in-depth discussions on the regional situation and the bilateral relations of friendship and matters of mutual concern including the resumption of the six-party talks and the denuclearization of the whole Korean Peninsula. They reached a full consensus of views on all the matters discussed.”

Comment: This means that the North has agreed to return to the six-party nuclear talks, at least on a conditional basis. Past conditions included acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear armed state by the other parties.

Another hypothesis moves in a different direction. This is that internal conditions have deteriorated to the point that the North is desperate for aid and is prepared to invite bribes … er, incentives from the six parties, just as it dabbles in summitry discussions with South Korea.

A warming trend has begun. Expect talks, if for no other reason than to obscure the sinking of the corvette Cheonan.

India-Pakistan: Security. On 19 August, the Indian Army accused Pakistan of violating the ceasefire along the Line of Control, charging it with trying to push militants into the India’s Jammu and Kashmir State under the cover of an armed clash.

A Defense Ministry spokesman said Indian military posts in southern Kashmir received small arms and mortar fire from Pakistani-controlled Kashmir in a pre-dawn skirmish with Pakistani troops that lasted around two hours. “Pakistani troops opened unprovoked fire at Indian posts and targeted several positions in Poonch District,” said an Army Lieutenant Colonel. “Our soldiers retuned fire.” There were no casualties.

Comment: Skirmishes of this sort tend to be seasonal in spring and fall. Infltration in summer usually is preparatory for a special occasion or to respond to a special need of the Kashmir insurgents. India reports nearly all border incidents so as to keep media attention on Pakistan as a supporter of insurgency and violent extremists. As a general rule, these kinds of exchanges are, in fact, cover for Kashmiri separatist teams, infiltrating from Pakistan into Indian Kashmir, as the Indians stated..

Politics. Pakistan will not accept any “preconditions” for resuming talks with India, including New Delhi’s demand for action against terrorism emanating from Pakistani soil, a Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman said 19 August. He also said India will have to show “flexibility” to ensure talks are resumed, and Pakistan is ready to achieve constructive results on all issues, including Jammu and Kashmir. The Indo-Pakistani dialogue ceased after the Mumbai attacks in November 2008.

Comment: The prospects of warmer, more normal relations earlier this year appear to have faded. Pakistani leaders are fond of bashing India to divert attention from their crisis management shortcomings or lack of resources, in this instance, in handling the flood relief and recovery.

Reading Pakistani media is a study in curious contrasts. National level and northern Punjabi politics have continued with little apparent disruption caused by the national flooding catastrophe that has displaced 4.5million Pakistanis. CIA’s fact book reported that the GDP grew by only 2.7% in 2009. The floods threaten to wipe out any growth this year. Infiltration programs into Indian Kashmir and talks with India seem disjointed from the national effort at crisis damage control and stabilization.

Iraq: For the record. Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said in an interview with the Italian news outlet Corriere della Sera that President Obama’s “abandonment of Iraq” is causing a tragic power vacuum and neighboring countries are intruding in Baghdad politics, Today’s Zaman reported.

He claimed he repeatedly warned Washington about the issue, but the Americans are leaving and Iranians, Turks, Syrians and others are filling the vacuum. As instability increases, neighboring states are vying to gain influence in Iraq, he said. Turkey is unusually active and should be balanced with a contrary power.

Comment: Zebari’s statements exhibit little confidence in the Iraqi government’s ability to balance neighboring, external influences or to prevent a deterioration of security. His interests are served by some exaggeration, but, curiously, his remarks do not exaggerate much, if at all. As noted above, middle powers misbehave when great powers do not fill the strategic space. (That is a behavioral observation rooted in decades of experience, not a statement of political advocacy.)

Colombia-Venezuela: Colombian Foreign Minister Maria Angela Holguin, Defense Minister Rodrigo Rivera and Commerce Minister Sergio Diaz-Granados traveled to Caracas, Venezuela, for a visit intended to help normalize diplomatic relations between the countries, El Espectador reported 19 August. Rivera met his Venezuelan counterpart, General Carlos Mata, on 19 August; Holguin is to talk with Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro on 20 August, Semana reported. Diaz-Granados will convene with Venezuelan economic officials to establish a working group for economic and infrastructure cooperation.

Comment: Relations are being “reset,” now that President Uribe is out of office. The easing of tension is a positive development even though the warming trend will be short-lived. Readers will recall that on 3 August the two countries nearly engaged in border skirmishes, which helps put in perspective the time lines for warming and frigid periods in bilateral relations.

Mexico: Security forces in Mexico have found the body of the kidnapped mayor of the northern city of Santiago. The body of Mayor Edelmiro Cavazos was found handcuffed and blindfolded outside the nearby city of Monterrey, local media said.

He was kidnapped from his home on Sunday night by 15 armed men. State governor Rodrigo Medina said he believed Cavazos might have been targeted because of his efforts to tackle corruption in the local police force.

Comment: Criminal and cartel actions to target officials of Cavazos’ stature are infrequent. The local descriptions of the kidnapping suggest it was not directly drug-related, but might have been an old-fashioned criminal payback.

End of NightWatch for 19 August.

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NightWatch

For the Night of 11 August 2010

Fiji: Military leader Commodore Bainimarama said that China was the one country that understands the reforms he is trying to implement, Agence France-Presse reported 11 August. China is the only nation that can assist Fiji in its reforms because of the way the Chinese think outside the box, he said, and that the Chinese are visionary in what they do.

He said Fiji must maintain trade but should forget about the politics of the Pacific Forum, Australia and New Zealand. Fiji needs infrastructure, water and electricity, and Australia, New Zealand and America will not provide help, he stated.

Comment: During the past two decades, Chinese survey and other ships have sought to gain access to South Pacific states with mixed results. Access to and influence in Fiji would be a significant strategic achievement for China.

China – Special comment: The Japanese news service Asahi Shimbun published a report on 10 August that is a good summary of Chinese progress in developing an aircraft carrier force. The primary source of the information overstates its novelty and urgency. Almost all of the activities described have been reported, including the training of the first class of 50 pilots for carrier-based aircraft; the indigenous development of a carrier-based fighter; the creation of two sites for training carrier pilots and the continuing modification of the 60,000 ton carrier Varyag at Dalian to prepare it for training of crews and air wings. China purchased this carrier from Ukraine in 2001.

The article describes the Chinese as going forward at a “feverish pace.” That overstates a decades-long program whose first milestone was purchase of Australia’s HMAS Melbourne in 1985 for use in land-based training.

The important point is that the Chinese have maintained a consistent and steady pace in moving toward aircraft carrier capabilities for a quarter century. The pace is not feverish, but it is significant, cumulative and unwavering.

The item is a reminder that China’s now medium-range intentions to follow the US pattern for asserting strategic dominance at sea, using aircraft carriers with a Chinese, poor-man’s twist. They are smaller, sea control carriers by US standards, but mightily threatening to the northeast Asian and the Southeast Asian US friends and allies.

In past crises, western Pacific and Southeast Asian states could rely on the arrival of a US carrier task group to tilt the balance in the US favor. In the future, a Chinese aircraft carrier task group might arrive first, backed by carrier-tracking over the horizon radars, linked to carrier-killing ballistic missiles. Not there yet, but even in open source materials that end-state looks increasingly clear.

South Korea likely will respond with its own carrier force that is likely to match the Chinese, except in numbers. It is not clear how the Japanese leadership will respond, but the Maritime Self-Defense Force and the South Korean Navy are likely to find more reasons to train together and cooperate than ever before.

The prospect of a Chinese aircraft carrier squadron was once a distant future. That future is fast approaching and is spawning a northeast Asian naval buildup.

Pakistan: The Daily Times reported the following note.

“Mufti Munibur Rehman, the chairman of the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee, announced on Wednesday that the Ramazan moon has been sighted, and that the fasting will begin today (Thursday), as Ramazan 1, 1431, will fall on August 12. The meeting of the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee was held at the Metrological Office, Gulistan-e-Johar in Karachi.”

Ramadan has begun.

Germany-Afghanistan: Acting on instructions from Berlin, senior officers ordered two 600-man German battalions to team up with Afghan soldiers in the coming months and clear Taliban fighters from districts the insurgents now dominate, The Wall Street Journal reported 11 August.

The new German commander of the battalion in Konduz province expects to begin a series of attacks in October. German commanders are splitting the two battalions off from the 4,400 troops currently in Afghanistan. The new battalions will have enhanced capabilities, such as reconnaissance technology and combat engineers, along with access to artillery support.

Note. The report did not specify the target district, but it should be Chahar Dara in Konduz Province. Since mid 2007, the Germans have mounted multiple offensives to suppress the Pashtun rebels in Chahar Dara without lasting success.

Better technology is obviously not a solution. With 1,200 soldiers, the Germans only will have a four-to-one superiority, according to German data about the Taliban fighter presence in Konduz. This operation has poor prospects for achieving any lasting success.

It is curious that the government in Berlin announced its backing for this operation. Public statements of support of that kind are a red flag for a last concerted effort. Reinforcing that suspicion is that the announcement of this offensive operation coincides with the government proposal for cutting the German army from 95,000 personnel to about 55,000. Thus, this looks like the one last good effort with a demonstration that the announced plan for defense cuts does not signify a change in the German commitment in Afghanistan … yet!

Russia-Abkhazia: Russia has deployed S-300 air defense missile systems in Georgia’s breakaway Abkhazia region, Russian air force chief Colonel General Alexander Zelin said 11 August, RIA Novosti and Reuters reported.

“We have deployed the C-300 system on Abkhaz territory, which, alongside other aircraft defense systems of the ground forces, will solve the problems of air defense of the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.”  Zelin said similar air defense systems have already been deployed in South Ossetia.

The deployment falls within the bilateral agreement on military cooperation, Abkhaz Foreign Minister Maxim Gvindzhia said, according to RIA Novosti. Gvindzhia said the air defense systems are necessary because of the “constant threat” from Georgia and its allies.

South Ossetian Defense Minister Valery Yakhnovets said that while his country has reliable air defense systems in place, S-300 battery deployments “would not be superfluous.

The US State Department spokesman said it was his understanding these systems had been in the two secessionist states of Georgia for some time. The US statement suggests the advanced systems deployed with Russian regiments in the fight against Georgia and never left.

That implies that today’s statement by Zelin is not intended to be news, so much as intimidating and provocative to Georgia.

Somalia Anti-piracy patrol: For the record. According to the London-based International Maritime Bureau, the number of pirate attacks worldwide decreased in the first half of 2010 by 34% year-on-year mostly due to the ongoing anti-piracy operation in the Gulf of Aden. More on this later.

Venezuela-Colombia: For the record. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations and create five joint commissions dealing with bilateral trade, security, debt payment, infrastructure and promoting investment in border regions, Globovision reported 10 August.

The agreements were the result of their summit meeting in the Colombian city of Santa Marta. Many will recall that President Santos, most recently, was the Minister of Defense in the Uribe administration and regularly castigated Chavez. So Chavez has responded with superficial magnanimity to “reset” relations with a new president. This easing of tension will not last and the ever-mercurial Chavez is likely to be the first to need an external threat to build political support.

End of NightWatch for 11 August.

NightWatch is brought to you by Kforce Government Solutions, Inc. (KGS), a leader in government problem-solving, Data Confidence® and intelligence. Views and opinions expressed in NightWatch are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of KGS, its management, or affiliates.

www.kforcegov.com

A Member of AFCEA International

www.afcea.org