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AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 1/12/10

January 11th, 2010 | No Comments | Posted in International, Security, analysis

NightWatch

For the Night of 12 January 2010

North Korea: Reuters reported on 12 January that North Korea’s Ambassador to China, Choe Jin Su, said Six Party Talks could resume only after the lifting of sanctions on North Korea and acceptance of its latest proposal for peace treaty talks. He said concluding a peace treaty can eradicate hostile relations between North Korea and the United States and rapidly advance denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. He added that if sanctions are lifted, Six Party Talks can resume immediately.

Today’s statement is a clarification of the North’s latest offer of talks. It reinforces the hypothesis that the leadership in Pyongyang has adjusted its negotiating strategy. The path to ending the North’s nuclear program runs through lifting sanctions and peace treaty talks. The North is offering what it considers a package deal to normalize conditions on the peninsula and remove the justification for a US military presence. It is not promising to give up nuclear weapons already built.

China: In a terse statement yesterday, Chinese media announced a successful test of a land-based ballistic missile defense system. The announcement contained no details that described the system or the test.

Apparently, something the Chinese launched worked because the US protested today that China did not give the United States prior notification of the test. The US has asked the Chinese Government to clarify its intentions for the intercept weaponry, Agence France-Presse reported, citing a statement from a Pentagon spokesperson. The statement said the US detected two missile launches, with an exo-atmospheric collision observed by space-based sensors.

Details in the public domain are incomplete. China is known to have fielded advanced Russian and advanced indigenously developed anti-missile systems. It also has land-based missiles capable of destroying satellites.

The timing suggests this is reaction to US plans to sell Taiwan advanced anti-ballistic missile systems and eight Perry-class frigates, which the US Navy no longer requires.

The Chinese warned the US against selling arms to Taiwan while expecting Chinese cooperation on other international issues. A commentary published by Xinhua warned of broader fallout from the Patriot missile deal. “Each time the United States has sold weapons to Taiwan, there has been huge damage to China-US relations,” said the commentary. “This US arms sale to Taiwan will be no exception.” US-Chinese relations are entering a period of increased tension in reaction to the arms sales.

Philippines: A Saudi man dressed as a pilot was arrested 12 January after entering a restricted area in the Philippines’ primary airport, The News International reported, citing airport General Manager Alfonso Cusi. Cusi said the 19-year-old man misrepresented himself as a pilot of Saudia.

This might have no significance, but the Philippines has been a venue for testing new terrorist tactics in the past.

Pakistan-Afghanistan: Inter-Services Intelligence Director-General, Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, told the parliamentary Special Committee on National Security on 12 January that infiltration of militants from the Afghan border must be stopped for Pakistan to have peace, Dawn News reported. The drug mafia supports rebels who are causing unrest in Pakistan, Pasha said. The chair of the committee, Raza Rabbani, later briefed the media. The committee discussed the implications of the U.S. President’s Afghan policy and possible effects on Pakistani sovereignty, the Associated Press of Pakistan reported.

General Pasha is one of the leaders in the media counter-attack whereby Pakistan blames Afghanistan for Pakistan’s internal security problems.

Iran: An Iranian nuclear scientist and Tehran University professor, Masoud Ali-Mohammadi, was killed by a remote-controlled bomb outside his home in northern Tehran on 12 January. News agencies have claimed that “counter-revolutionary” agents, including those working with the US, MEK and “Zionist regime”, were behind the attack, however ambiguities surrounding his death, as well as his political leanings, remain.

One brilliant and perceptive reader asked: “Where was Iranian security that it failed to protect one of Iran’s nuclear scientists?”

Czech Republic-NATO: Today, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Kohout said at a conference in Prague discussing the NATO alliance that Eastern European members hope to re-confirm Article 5 of the NATO charter, DPA reported. This is the article that commits all members to the proposition that an attack against one is an attack against all.

The US invoked Article 5 to obligate NATO members to fight with the US after the 9/11 attack. The newest members of NATO, especially the Baltic states, require reassurance about the wisdom of their commitment to NATO.

The Russians, under Putin, have not given up on recovering from NATO parts of the Soviet sphere of influence. The Eastern European NATO members are acutely aware of Russian intentions.

Honduras: The Honduran Congress discussed today the possibility of amnesty for all involved in the June 2009 coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya, Xinhua reported. Congressional leader Jose Saavedra called lawmakers into session for the discussion.

This must be especially frustrating for Zelaya since his party holds the largest bloc in the Congress.

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AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 12/28/09

December 28th, 2009 | No Comments | Posted in International, Security, analysis

NightWatch

For the Night of 28 December 2009

North Korea: Update. The Ministry of Public Security has imposed a “complete prohibition of foreign currency usage.” The decree was issued on 26 December and went into effect on the 28th.

According to a Daily NK source inside North Hamkyung Province reported, “A declaration on banning the use of U.S. dollars, Yuan and the Euro was publicized on the 26th. The declaration was posted in public places and in every work place starting this morning (28 December).”

A source from Yangkang Province also reported, “From December 28, no foreign currencies can be used. The foreign currencies the declaration meant were dollars, Yuan and the Euro.” According to the source, the cabinet decided this new regulation.

The title of the declaration is, “On punishing severely those who use foreign currencies within our Republic.” The declaration stipulates, “Not for any reason may individuals or organizations possess any foreign currency, with the exception of banks.” Trading enterprises or foreign currency earning organizations are directed to put earned foreign currency in the bank within 24 hours and, if they fail to do so, managers will be punished.

The declaration also states, “All the foreign currencies held by trading enterprises should be put in the bank and, when it is needed for trade, it can be withdrawn after obtaining approval.” Foreigners, meanwhile, have to deposit their currency into a designated account and exchange it for North Korean won.

Apparently, one aim of the currency reform is to strengthen the North Korean currency, which is worthless outside North Korea. Those analysts who speculated that the currency reform somehow was intended to support a plan for opening the economy mistook opening for recentralization of the statist system.

North Korea-US: The Korean Central News Agency confirmed in a brief report, “A U.S. citizen illegally entered the country across the North Korea-China border and has been detained. The person is currently undergoing questioning by a related agency.”

Robert Park, a Korean American fundamentalist Christian, has not been heard of since Christmas Day, when he walked across the frozen Tumen River that borders North Korea and China. Based on comments Park made to Reuters last week, he intended to be arrested and was willing to be executed, if necessary, to draw attention to human rights abuses.

North Korea eventually will expel him, after interrogation, and arrest and torture anyone who helped him inside North Korea.

Pakistan: Security. At least 30 people have been killed and dozens injured in a suicide bombing of a Shia Muslim procession in Karachi, officials said. Ashura on Monday was the climax of the holy period that commemorates the death of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson.

The attacker was in a procession with tens of thousands of people, according to the Interior Minister. After the explosion, marchers turned their anger on ambulance workers, security forces and journalists. Rioters torched dozens of shops and vehicles, while members of the security forces who had been guarding the procession were pelted with stones.

Pakistan’s security forces have been on high alert as Shia Muslims marked the holy month of Muharram. Obviously this was another in a long line of security lapses. The Shiites will retaliate.

Iran: At least 15 people were killed yesterday during massive anti-government protests in Tehran when opposition supporters clashed with security forces in the streets, Iranian state television reported Monday.

The report said 10 people killed during Sunday’s fierce clashes in the Iranian capital were members of “anti-revolutionary terrorist” groups, apparently referring to opposition supporters. The other five who died were killed by “terrorist groups” in a “suspicious act,” the report said, without elaborating.

Iranian security forces stormed a series of opposition offices on Monday, rounding up at least seven prominent anti-government activists in a new crackdown against the country’s reformist movement, opposition Web sites and activists reported.

Comment: An overreaction phase is in progress. One source reported the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is interested in making concessions to the opposition but is prevented by hardliners, presumably in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards.

The pattern conforms to the model. Every crackdown has been followed by a worsening of the opposition in terms of more and more daring outbreaks in more cities and then a relaxation of the restrictions. The sequence of crackdowns that have failed to suppress the opposition has fostered is expansion beyond the ranks of the university students and opposition clerics. A wider portion of the voting public appears to be sympathetic if not supportive.

Opposition blogs claim isolated incidents in which security force members have refused to fire on protestors or have joined them. The reports about refusals to obey orders are unconfirmed. However, this is a critical indicator of deteriorating internal instability conditions that always lead to power sharing.

Somalia anti-piracy patrol: Chinese state media say a hijacked Chinese cargo ship and 25 sailors have been rescued two months after they were seized by pirates off the Somali coast. Xinhua reported the ship and crew were rescued early Monday morning, but didn’t say whether the ship was retaken by force or if a ransom was paid. A Somali pirate outlet reported China paid a ransom of $4 million.

The De Xin Hai was seized 19 October about 700 miles (east of the Somali coast. It is the first Chinese vessel to be hijacked since China deployed a three-ship squadron to the Gulf of Aden last year to join the international anti-piracy flotilla.

End of NightWatch for 28 December.

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