AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 8/24/09
About this post: The post below is my edited summary of John McCreary’s informative and valuable, unclassified/open source NightWatch Global Intelligence Update.
NightWatch is published by AFCEA, the Armed Forces Communications & Electronics Assn. of which I am a member. Past editions of NightWatch are archived here in their entirety on AFCEA’s site.
UPDATES BY COUNTRY:
South Korea: The second attempt to launch the Korean Space Launch Vehicle is scheduled for 25 August.
South Korea-North Korea: While Korean President Lee Myung Bak’s office said he is prepared to hold a summit with North Korea under certain conditions, no such summit has been proposed by either side, Yonhap reported 24 August. The government statement was a response to reports in South Korean dailies that North Korean leader Kim Chong-il had proposed a summit on 23 August via a personal message delivered by the North’s delegation to Kim Dae-jung’s funeral. South Korea said there were general discussions on the development of the two nations’ relations.
In a quick follow-up to the visit to North Korea by the CEO of Hyundai, South and North Korea announced they will hold talks this week on reunions for families separated by the Korean War, Seoul officials said on 25 August. North Korea accepted South Korea’s proposal to hold the three-day talks starting Wednesday at the North’s Mount Kumgang resort, Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said.
North Korea-US: North Korea has invited the U.S. official charged with managing relations with the reclusive state to visit next month for talks on its nuclear arms program, South Korean media outlets reported on 25 August. If the reports are accurate, Stephen Bosworth would lead a delegation first to South Korea, China and Japan to discuss stalled Six-Party talks before heading to Pyongyang, the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper reported quoting a senior diplomatic source in Washington. If Bosworth does go, it would mark the first official bilateral talks between North Korea and the Obama administration on the nuclear issue
Comment: (John McCreary) It is easy to overlook the significance of the North’s latest attempt at diplomatic breakout with the other members of the Six Party process. Most often, the North’s diplomacy is characterized by whip-saw and wedge-driving tactics in which Pyongyang’s diplomats try to gain negotiating advantage by playing nations against each other. Frequently an opening to South Korea will work in parallel with renewed tension with the US and vice versa.
This time the North is making conciliatory and compromising moves towards all participants, with the possible exception of Japan. This strategy is difficult for the North’s Foreign Ministry to manage and not seen in the past eight years. It will only last as long as the North assesses the opening has prospects of obtaining some concrete value, especially economic benefits, for the ailing economy; not a moment longer.
Bilateral negotiations with the US would a high prestige achievement, but their importance as a conduit for economic assistance is a close second. North Korea is looking for handouts.
India-Pakistan: Pakistan has not taken the steps to fight militants needed to allow “meaningful dialogue,” the Times of India reported today, citing Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna. “…A meaningful dialogue will only be possible following the fulfillment by Pakistan of its commitment not to allow its territory to be used for terrorist activities against India,” Krishna said. Following the Mumbai attacks on 26 November 2008, Krishna said, Pakistan has taken steps, but not enough.
Afghanistan: For the record. Government ministers and election officials have leaked preliminary indications that President Karzai won a landslide electoral victory.
Honduras: The Agence France-Presse headline this Watch read, “US backs high stakes Honduras mission.” The news bulletin referred to the ongoing visit to Tegucigalpa by the head of the Organization of American States plus seven regional foreign ministers. Their task is to persuade the interim Honduran government to accept a proposal to reinstate Manuel Zelaya as President.
According to a State Department spokesman, “the US government, responding to the mission’s request, provided a C-17 aircraft to fly the delegation from Miami to an airbase near the Honduran capital Tegucigalpa.”
The foreign ministers of Argentina, Canada, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Mexico and Panama are taking part in the latest mediation bid to talk with interim President Roberto Micheletti.”
In an opinion piece today, The Wall Street Journal suggested that the US State Department has been slow and reluctant to defend the deployment to Colombia of a few more US soldiers to assist with counter-insurgency and counter-narcotics operations at the request of the Colombian government. In contrast State has been vigorous in pushing to reinstate the anti-US tycoon-turned socialist Zelaya.
