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AFCEA/KGS Global Intelligence Update: 6/29/10

Mike Russell — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 06:09:41 +0000

NightWatch

For the Night of 29 June 2010

Administrative Note: The most recent NightWatch prior to this was for the night of 25 June.

North Korea: Update. North Korea accused the United States of bringing “heavy weapons” into the truce village of Panmunjom over the weekend, according to the Korean Central News Agency. U.S. forces introduced those weapons on 26 June, according to the Panmunjom Mission of North Korea’s army. The message said that armed forces of both sides stand in acute confrontation, so this is a premeditated provocation intended to spark a serious military conflict. Pyongyang called for the weapons to be immediately removed, and warned of “strong military countermeasures” if they are not.

The United Nations Command in South Korea denied the allegation, saying the United Nations Command continues to abide by the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement. It specifies that no heavy weapons may be brought into the joint security area of Panmunjom. The spokesman added that North Korea should bring its concerns to the appropriate forum.

Concerning nuclear developments, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement, “The recent disturbing development on the Korean Peninsula underscores the need for North Korea to bolster its nuclear deterrent in a newly developed way to cope with the persistent, hostile U.S. policy toward Pyongyang and military threat toward it,”

North Korea cited the threat of a nuclear attack from the United States as a main reason behind its drive to build atomic weapons, according to the statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency.

Comment: As the succession wrangling continues in the North, it will become even more prickly and fanciful. The two items above appear to signal the start of an offensive propaganda campaign that picks nits with South Korea and its Allies about real activity and fictitious provocations. Offensive accusations promise to be prominent in the North’s media through September.

China-US: For the record. China denied reports that an artillery exercise in the East China Sea was conducted in response to a joint military exercise between South Korea and the United States, Reuters reported 29 June. A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that it was a routine exercise and that the timing was coincidental.

India: Maoist rebels attacked a paramilitary police unit as it was returning from a mission preparing for a threatened rebel strike in Chhattisgarh State. The Maoists killed at least 26 paramilitary police personnel in the roadside ambush.

The gunfight, which lasted for about three hours, occurred about 3 p.m. in the state’s heavily forested Bastar region, as the 63-member Central Reserve Police Force patrol was returning from a “road-opening mission” in preparation for a threatened two-day rebel strike expected to start Wednesday.

Maoist rebels, who control a large swath of Indian territory, often erect roadblocks in jungle areas they control, which the government tries to raze to reassert its authority. A similar assault in April killed 76 paramilitary police personnel. Another in May killed 31 policemen.

Home Secretary G.K. Pillai told reporters that reinforcements reached the area from nearby camps within hours and that all the bodies had been recovered. Some of the injured reportedly were evacuated by helicopter.

Comment: Indian news services assessed that the attack suggests that rebels are growing stronger despite a stepped-up effort launched last year by the Indian government.

It would be more accurate to assess that the Indian paramilitary forces continue to make the same dumb mistakes in the same areas; their tactics have not changed; their intelligence on the Naxalites does not exist or is not actionable enough to save lives; and their response time – in hours — is a disgrace for a modern professional force. The central government does not consider the Maoists a serious threat yet. Despite the losses and irrespective of ministerial outcries in New Delhi.

The significance is that the poorly armed but tactically effective Maoist rebels inflict repeated beatings on a far superior and better armed paramilitary police force that fails to learn from its mistakes, which at least teach what actions to avoid.

Afghanistan: A report by the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction reported that the United States does not know the capability of the Afghanistan security forces at this time, Reuters reported 28 June, citing U.S. auditors.

According to the report, rankings used to grade Afghan forces varied greatly from one region to another, personnel numbers for the Afghan army were overstated and widespread corruption and drug abuse among Afghan security forces as well as logistics issues plagued the effort to develop independent Afghan forces.

Comment: Open source information on Afghan security force casualties in April and May tends to reinforce the IG report. As US and Western force casualties began to rise, Afghan Army and Police casualties declined, in open source reporting. The data suggested the Afghans were sitting back, letting US and Western forces engage and be engaged by the Taliban, even in joint operations.

Enlistment in the security forces is a jobs program, rather than a career in the Western sense. There is a strong military tradition in Afghanistan, but it resides primarily in the Pashtuns, who are the Taliban today. When Pashtuns enlist, they are infiltrators from the Taliban. The numbers of Afghan army and police personnel are fictitious, but that should not be news.

Kyrgyzstan: After the constitutional referendum last weekend, international observers are praising it as a remarkably peaceful and largely transparent process, The Associated Press reported 28 June.

Boris Frlec, head of the observation mission, said the provisional government should be commended for organizing a remarkably peaceful process and that the referendum was “largely transparent.” The provisional government passed a decree, delegating powers to the interim president until national elections are held. Roza Otunbayeva was elected interim president until 31 December 2011.

Russia-Kyrgyzstan: The Russians demurred. President Medvedev said there is not enough authority in Kyrgyzstan to restore order. He added that he does not understand how the parliamentary republic model will work for the country, RIA Novosti reported 28 June.

Medvedev noted that it would turn into a never-ending series of problems with parliamentary reshuffles of various political forces, and an uncontrolled change of power. He said it would help forces with extremist tendencies to gain power. Russia cannot remain indifferent because Kyrgyzstan is a strategic partner and a country that currently has a great many problems, Medvedev stated.

Comment: Medvedev’s comments suggest Russia favored a strong presidential form of government.

More ominous is his reference to Russia not remaining indifferent. Similar but stronger statements in the past were indicators that the Soviet Union reserved the right to intervene to secure its interests: in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 for example.

US-Iran Nuclear Program: The televised interview by the Director of CIA, Leon Panetta, generated significant international reaction. Among many other remarks, Panetta said the CIA assessed Iran has sufficient fissile material for two nuclear weapons. NightWatch Readers know that does not mean Iran has two nuclear weapons. It does mean that CIA analysts have concluded that Iran has not abandoned the option of developing nuclear weapons and could do so quickly after the leadership gives the order.

Panetta’s comments are a significant break with the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, in principle, meaning the new view is that Iran does not have nukes but has the technology. I can build nukes in a couple of years.

That substance is not much different from the 2007 Estimate, in fact, but it was worded more artfully and blew the crisis over Israel’s naval blockade of the Gaza Strip right off the front page of international news. The noteworthy international reactions are summarized below. The Russian reaction is the most significant.

Russia: President Medvedev said he was alarmed by U.S. assertions that Iran may have enough fuel for two nuclear weapons and warned that if confirmed Tehran may face new measures, Reuters reported 28 June. The information must be checked, Medvedev said, adding that if the CIA information is shown to be true, the situation will become more tense.

Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia is interested in studying any new information the CIA might have regarding Iran’s nuclear enrichment plans, according to Itar-Tass on 29 June. The statement came following talks between Lavrov and Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. If the CIA has information Russia does not have, specifically information that proves Iran has begun enriching uranium to a weapon-grade level, Russia would like to “look into it in detail,” Lavrov said.

Iran: Iran’s nuclear activities don’t have a military purpose and the U.S. intelligence agency is aware of that, according to a Foreign Ministry spokesman, Bloomberg reported 28 June. Ramin Mehmanparast described the comments as propaganda intended to allow the United States to avoid nuclear disarmament. What Iran is pursuing is only in the framework of the rights that its International Atomic Energy Agency membership entitles it to, Mehmanparast said, adding that the real concern is disarmament and non-proliferation

Israel: President Shimon Peres said during a meeting with Estonian President Toomas Hendrik believes that Russian President Medvedev’s comments regarding the Iranian nuclear program should not be taken lightly, Ynet reported 28 June. Heretofore, Russia had doubts about Iran’s capability to develop a nuclear bomb, Peres said. Medvedev’s statement has a serious element of change and Israel appreciates this development, he added.

Algeria: La Tribune Online, centrist, moderate publication, ran a sarcastic editorial comment.

“The director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has stated that Tehran has enough enriched uranium “to manufacture two” nuclear “weapons.” Leon Panetta has also asserted that Iran could possess a nuclear weapon in “two years.” Yet another find by the American intelligence agencies. When the United States decides to get involved in what it calls a “preventive war,” it charges the CIA with finding “the excuse.” This is a limp scenario with disastrous consequences. This reminds us of the fable of the shepherd who cries wolf to awaken the village. Moreover the epilogue to the last two bloody and dramatic episodes is not yet known. The day following the 11 September 2001 attacks, the Bush administration exerted major pressure on the CIA to justify the invasion of the two countries that had been targeted beforehand and put on the list of the “axis of evil.”

The remainder of the commentary applied the above reasoning to the situation of Iran. La Tribune suggested the CIA Director’s comments portended an attack on Iran.

Comment: Significant for the absence of any commentary are Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Based on Panetta’s remarks, Iran is about where Pakistan was in 1998 when Benazir Bhutto was prime minister and ordered nuclear weapons development. Pakistan, thus, is in no position to criticize Iran.

Saudi King Abdallah is making a state visit to Washington, D.C. today and 30 June. In mid June, the King told the French Foreign Minister that neither Israel nor Iran deserved to exist, according to L’Orient, He was venting his exasperation over Israeli seizure of the humanitarian aid ships for the Gaza Strip and over Iran’s defiance on nuclear issues. No doubt, the US President learned the Kingdom’s reaction to Panetta’s remarks.

Somalia-Anti-piracy patrol: NATO is sending a Dutch submarine to the east coast of Africa to help monitor communications between pirate vessels and the warlords who control them onshore.

The Alliance said today that one of four Walrus-class submarines in the Royal Netherlands Navy will start patrolling waters from the Gulf of Aden to the Indian Ocean starting in September and continuing through November. Walrus-class submarines are among the most modern non-nuclear subs deployed by the NATO-member navies and have stealth technology that makes them difficult to detect even by other submarines. NATO said the Dutch submarine would target pirates responsible for hijacking commercial ships for ransoms worth millions of dollars.

Comment: Somehow, the Dutch managed to make the case that a stealthy submarine could help the anti-terror effort. It should add depth to the effort, but this commitment appears related more to preserving Dutch submarine capabilities. Preservation and exercise of capabilities and assets are recurring, prominent themes in the NATO effort.

Without the justification provided by the Somali pirates, most NATO navies would become reserve fleets. This way they maintain the ability to cooperate with the US Navy to some extent. Core naval war fighting skills are maintained.

Venezuela: The National Assembly approved the nationalization of 11 oil rigs belonging to U.S. firm Helmerich & Payne, El Universal reported 29 June. A report that Venezuelan state-run oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela presented to legislators said that the nationalization was necessary because the rigs were inactive and were required for operations in the eastern and western parts of the country.

Comment: Chavez’ incremental nationalization of commercial enterprises takes Venezuela a giant leap into the past of anti-capitalist failures that ensured that potentially prosperous countries remained impoverished. The fall of the Soviet Union, after 70 years of trying, was a testament to the propositions that the technology has not yet been invented and human sensibilities are insufficiently enlightened to make a socialist utopia achievable. Chavez is on the path to make Venezuela, not himself, poor.

Mexico: The El Paso Times reported that thousands of police officers in Juárez plan to be inconspicuous on election day, 4 July, despite ongoing violence. Federal, state and municipal police in Juárez will not safeguard polling stations during the 4 July election, when voters will elect a mayor, governor and other representatives.

Soldiers will not even come out that day, city officials said. “Police could scare people away, and instead of people feeling comfortable, they could feel that they will be inspected or detained,” said Max Frederick of the Juárez elections department. “We want people to be happy so they can go out and vote.”

Law officers said they favor a low-profile approach on election day for the same reason. “The instructions are not to get close to the polling booths,” said José Ramón Salinas of the federal police. “What we are seeking is for people not to feel inhibited.” But police will stand by, ready if needed, Salinas said.

Comment: The unasked questions are which candidates do the cartels support and which candidates support the cartels. Perhaps a police presence is unnecessary. That would be the case if the outcome is already decided and not likely to be contested.

End of NightWatch for 29 June.

NightWatch is brought to you by Kforce Government Solutions, Inc. (KGS), a leader in government problem-solving, Data Confidence® and intelligence. Views and opinions expressed in NightWatch are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of KGS, its management, or affiliates.

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AFCEA/KGS Global Intelligence Update: 5/19/10

Mike Russell — Thu, 20 May 2010 04:29:43 +0000

NightWatch

For the Night of 19 May 2010

South Korea: The government’s official findings about the sinking of the patrol ship Cheonan will be announced during this Watch. Leaks and off hand comments on 19 May have prepared the public to expect to learn that North Korea is to blame for the ship’s sinking.

North Korea published a commentary yesterday that accused South Korea of exploiting the sinking of the patrol ship for its own advantage.

Comment: The sinking is a violation of the armistice as blatant as any that occurred in earlier decades. At a minimum, the North’s action validates the hard line policies of President Lee. If North Korea does not apologize — as it has in the past for less serious atrocities – the South will intensify the freeze in relations with the North. A prolonged period of heightened tension is likely to be punctuated by acts of retaliation against the North for the loss of the 46 South Korean sailors. The opening acts will be at the UN.

The North might welcome a period of relative isolation so that it can sort out the dynastic succession process in a communist state.

China: The Chinese news agency, Xinhua, reported today (19 May) that South Korean President Lee Myung Bak told Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama on 19 May that South Korea will present definitive evidence related to its warship sinking in March, citing a South Korean presidential press release.

The Xinhua report stated, “Investigators have concluded that North Korea attacked the naval ship with a Chinese-made torpedo, Yonhap reported, citing an unnamed senior government source. There was Chinese writing on torpedo fragments collected from the scene, the source said; the weapon appeared to be a heavy acoustic homing torpedo, known as a Yu-3G.

The significance is that the Chinese news agency report establishes that the Chinese leadership cannot help but be aware of South Korea’s accusations that a Chinese-made torpedo fired from a North Korean submarine sank the Cheonan.

Thailand: A government spokesman said the operation to disperse the Red Shirts has ended today, but Red Shirts went on a rampage in which they torched 27 buildings and fought with security forces. The government imposed a curfew in Bangkok and surrounding provinces and 23 provinces in the north and northeast where clashes have been reported.

During the day, Red Shirt leaders announced their demonstration was ended and called on supporters to leave. Seven leaders surrendered to the government. The arson and rampages began after that. Security forces will continue the crackdown against violent protest throughout the night in Bangkok, the government’s Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) announced.

Upcountry. Anti-government Red Shirt protesters ignored a curfew in the northern town of Chiang Mai, attacking bank branches and setting fire to car tires and at least two fire trucks, the Bangkok Post reported, citing website Thai Rath. Police and troops were dispatched to confront the protesters, and the situation was under control by late evening, Agence France-Presse reported. However, troops reportedly retreated after being attacked by mobs in Ubon Ratchathani, in the northeast.

Thaksin wanted for terror. The Criminal Court approved the request of the Department of Special Investigation to issue arrest warrant against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and nine other people on charge of terrorism. Thaksin indirectly encouraged his supporters in the north and northeast to wage a guerilla war against the government. He is now wanted for terrorism as well as corruption.

Pakistan: The government ordered all internet service providers to suspend access to Facebook today after one user invited others to participate in a contest to draw caricatures of the Muslim prophet Mohammed.

Comment: Today’s action is a reminder that there are only two countries whose national identity is based on religion: Israel and Pakistan. Special thanks to a brilliant and extremely authoritative Reader for this reminder.

Kyrgyzstan: The interim government imposed a curfew in the city of Dzhalal-Abad (also spelled Jalalabad) and in Suzak District in southwestern Kyrgyzstan. This is one of the cities that supported ousted president Bakiyev, along with Osh.

“In connection with ongoing clashes between people in Dzhalal-Abad Region and in the interests of ensuring security and to restore the situation back to normal, it has been decided to impose a curfew until 1 June 2010 from 2000 to 0600 [local time].

“Acting Interior Minister Baktybek Alymbekov is to be appointed commandant of the city of Dzhalal-Abad and Suzak District.

“All the interim government’s envoys to the country’s southern part are to use the necessary means of the Defence Ministry, the Interior Ministry and the Border Service, and take every measure to prevent mass riots that are fraught with violence and a threat to people’s lives, the official decree said.

Comment: The significance of the decree is that it is an admission that the interim government still has not consolidated its control. The unrest in the south does not appear to be a threat to the government. Nor does civil war seem likely.

Russia-Somalia-piracy: The Russian ambassador to NATO urged a new legal regime to deal with piracy. “I turn to NATO and to the secretary general personally with a proposal to show political will and exert influence on certain Western states that are currently skeptical of … Russia’s resolution sent to the UN, which refers to the fact that the UN secretary general should present within three months various options for prosecuting pirates,” Dmitry Rogozin told RIA Novosti.

Rogozin warned that without the proper legal framework, the fight against piracy will always be “a game of cowboys and Indians” in which the pirates are caught and then released. Many NATO ambassadors consider piracy not just a regional, but an international problem, Rogozin said after a Russian-NATO discussion on ways of fighting piracy in Brussels.

“Piracy is not just about those who seize the vessels,” he said. “This is a complete organized crime network, which has its customers, executors and ‘cleaners’ for laundering dirty money and legitimizing the ransoms received for releasing hostages.”

Comment: Even a cursory study of admiralty law would show that maritime nations, until recently, have had no trouble dealing with pirates. The confusion about what to do with pirates bespeaks a lack of knowledge of history or, more likely, a lack of will to deal with the problem because of money. The legal precedents for dealing with pirates are well established and worked.

Rogozin is on the mark when he describes Somali piracy as a criminal syndicate that is well organized and highly profitable with low overhead. A few Somali fisherman engaged in piracy might be trying to feed the family, but most are criminals, by all press accounts, who help enrich piracy cartel leaders in Cairo and London.

France: The government has approved a draft law to ban the wearing of face-covering garments, specifically the burqa and niqab, in public, Agence France-Presse reported 19 May. The bill, which carries a 150-euro fine or possible citizenship training for violators, will now go to parliament.

John McCreary’s Comment: French logic is impeccable. Westerners in Islamic countries must conform to local customs and laws. France, to its credit, requires people from Muslim countries to conform to French customs and laws.

End of NightWatch for 19 May.

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OpenBTS: Build Your Own Cellular Network

Mike Russell — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 14:46:16 +0000

Friends in Asia, Europe and Oceania have been telling me for years they’re positively dumbfounded by how North American businesses and consumers are willing to put up with the oligopolistic tyranny of wireless carriers, their inconsistent service, overburdened data networks, locked handsets, dubious charges and a litany of other grievances, especially in the U.S.

After all, in many parts of the world, you choose your handset and your carrier…in whichever mix-and-match combination strikes your fancy.

Well, the OpenBTS technology discussed in this MIT TechReview piece is a harbinger of things to come already here, along with the decentralization and democratization of almost every other meaningful digital technology, so now there may be some intriguing alternatives.

Consider the possibilities represented by cheap, sustainable, easily-deployable wireless networks for community resilience/resiliency, emergency preparedness and disaster recovery, much less the opportunities for leapfrogging failed, obsolete (or non-existent) infrastructure in the developing world.

—Mike Russell

Build your own cellular network

Just about anybody can create an inexpensive cellular base station that routes calls all over the world.

By Erica Naone

Photo: Courtesy of OpenBTS

The task of running a cellular network has usually been reserved for major carriers. But now an open-source project called OpenBTS is proving that almost anyone can cheaply run a network with parts from a home-supply or auto-supply store. Cell-phone users within such a network can place calls to each other and–if the network is connected to the Internet–to people anywhere in the world.

The project’s cofounder, David Burgess, hopes that OpenBTS will mean easier and cheaper access to cellular service in remote parts of the world, including hard-to-reach locations like oil rigs and poor areas without much infrastructure. OpenBTS has already been used for cellular service at the Burning Man festival in the Black Rock Desert of Nevada and on the island of Niue in the South Pacific, among other locations.

Universal Software Radio Peripheral

A relatively inexpensive piece of hardware, easily purchased online, can be tuned to provide various types of radio signals. Someone running an OpenBTS network would use it to send and receive radio transmissions between the base station and a user’s cell phone.

Asterisk Software

A typical GSM base station, Burgess says, can’t do anything without a suite of components that maintain databases, perform call-switching functions, and so forth. This infrastructure is expensive (typically around $250,000) and complicated to configure, and it needs to be stored in an air-conditioned room. Obviously, that’s impractical in the kinds of places OpenBTS is designed for. As a result, the system replaces much of the physical infrastructure of the core network with VoIP software–in this case, an open-source program called Asterisk that can be installed on any off-the-shelf PC.

IP Connection

Cell-phone users on an OpenBTS network can reach each other even if the system isn’t connected to the Internet, but reaching someone outside the network requires an Internet connection. On Niue, the group used five-gigahertz IP radios to link the BTS unit to Telecom Niue’s wired Internet infrastructure, four kilometers away. Burgess says that response time can get a bit sluggish if the Internet connection isn’t very good, but it doesn’t take much bandwidth to make the system functional.

Power Supply

The system deployed on Niue draws about 60 watts of power, supplied by three marine batteries of the type that many locals use on their boats. Because the system’s power requirements are so low, Burgess says, a base station could also run on solar or wind power.

GSM handset

OpenBTS re-creates the technology behind GSM (the global system for mobile communications), which is used by the majority of mobile phones in the world. Any GSM phone will “see” an OpenBTS network as a standard cell network and interact with it normally.

Antenna

Like any cell network, an OpenBTS system requires an antenna to facilitate signaling. Different types of antennas can be used, according to the range the operator wants the network to have.

via technologyreview.com

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AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 2/4/10

Mike Russell — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 16:57:47 +0000

NightWatch

For the Night of 4 February 2010

North Korea: Update. The state news medium Korean Central News Agency reported today that Robert Park will be released. “The relevant organ of the DPRK (North Korea) decided to leniently forgive and release him, taking his admission and sincere repentance of his wrong doings into consideration.”

“What I have seen and heard in the DPRK convinced me that I misunderstood it. So I seriously repented of the wrong I committed, taken in by the West’s false propaganda,” KCNA quoted Park as saying.

Pubic repentance that embellishes the regime is a normal condition for leniency in North Korea’s communist system. This is modest good news. That means only one American is now in custody in the North.

China-Iran-UN: Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said discussions about imposing sanctions on Iran complicate the situation and make it harder to find a diplomatic solution, Reuters reported 4 February. During Yang’s visit to France, he said he wanted to see more direct talks between Iran and the international community over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.Yang said China firmly supports international nuclear non-proliferation, adding that all countries, Iran included, have a right to peaceful use of nuclear energy if they obey the International Atomic Energy Agency’s rules.

This represents no change in Chinese policy. There was no indication of change prior to the announcement of US arms sales to Taiwan and there is no change since that announcement. US arms sales to Taiwan are irrelevant to China’s attitude towards Iran’s nuclear program and the economic benefits from the Iran connection.

India: Home Minister Chidambaram disclosed for the first time that an Indian national by the name of Abu Jindal could have been involved in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, Pakistan’s Dawn News reported 4 February.

Chidambaram said voice samples from the suspect were absolutely necessary to establish his identity, and claimed that Pakistani authorities recorded Jindal’s voice through phone conversations. Chidambaram asked the Pakistani government to provide phone records, but Pakistan refused. He said India suspected Jindal’s involvement for several months.

The significance of this disclosure is that it opens an avenue for India and Pakistan to cooperate in the Mumbai investigation without indicting or embarrassing Pakistan. That could be a first step towards settling deeper differences over the Mumbai attacks. Relations will not return to a normal track until India completes its investigation of the Mumbai terrorists attacks and that will require continuing cooperation by Pakistani law enforcement agencies.

Pakistan: Intelligence sources were quoted as stating that there are reports of terrorist threats in Punjab province during the next 48 hours, GEO News reported Feb. 4. According to intelligence sources, some Punjab cities, especially Lahore and Rawalpindi, may be hit by terrorist activities. Officials said militants may hit markets, bazaars, schools and colleges, adding that law enforcement agencies are considered a special target

Afghanistan: General Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, said 4 February that while the situation in Afghanistan still is serious, it is no longer deteriorating, Reuters reported. McChrystal said U.S. and NATO forces in the country have not yet “turned the corner” on stability but that the situation has improved from last summer.

Comment: The NightWatch analysis reported months ago is that the Taliban have failed to expand beyond their Pashtun base. Detailed reports on combat in the past two weeks continue to reinforce the conclusion that the Taliban have failed to evolve into a revolutionary movement of broad appeal and, thus, have peaked.

There also is no sign of a large Taliban combat surge this winter, despite some ISAF predictions to the contrary in December, which have proven to be inaccurate. This winter is a lot like most of the past. The anti-government fighters appear to be riding out the winter, with the occasional sensational attack by the Haqqani syndicate. Most of the fighting in January appears to be NATO-initiated.

Iran-Russia: Update. Technical issues have held up delivery of advanced S-300 air defense systems to Iran, according to RIA Novosti. Iran’s Ambassador to Russia said Russia has assured Tehran that Moscow will fulfill its obligations.

Ukraine: Today, President Yushchenko signed amendments to election laws just before the 7 February presidential runoff, the presidential website said, reported RIA Novosti. The amendments remove the need for candidates’ representatives to supervise vote counting at polling stations.

The significance of the amendments is that they favor pro-Moscow candidate Yanukovich. Yushchenko’s supporters are urged to vote “against all,” which is a ballot option for disenfranchisement.

Prime Minister and presidential candidate Yulia Timoshenko — the target of Yushchenko’s action –has threatened to call mass protests, saying the amendments “open the way to election fraud.” The amendments were proposed by Timoshenko rival Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions.

Yushchenko’s disdain for Timoshenko appears to exceed his contempt for Yanukovich so much that he would take action to risk Ukraine’s pro-western orientation, which he cultivated, to prevent Timoshenko’s elections as his successor. If Yanukovich wins, Ukraine will move east in its security policies at least. This is a study in democracy.

Romania: Romanian President Basescu said 4 February that a U.S. antimissile defense system in Romania will be operational in 2015, Mediafax reported. Basescu said he accepted a proposal by U.S. President Obama to participate in the system and host elements of it. The offer was delivered by the U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control in a 4 February meeting with Basescu.

The Romanian Supreme Defense Council announced today that it has approved the U.S. plans to place land-based ballistic missile defense (BMD) interceptors on its territory. After negotiations, the two countries need to sign agreements that must be ratified by the Romanian parliament.

The significance of this announcement is that Romania will join Poland as the hosts of the ballistic missile defense system. The Czechs lose out on the money and money appears to be the main attractor.

Terrorism: Agents for Britain’s MI5 intelligence service reportedly have discovered that Muslim doctors trained at some of Britain’s leading teaching hospitals have returned to their own countries to fit surgical implants filled with explosives. Women suicide bombers recruited by al-Qaida are known to have had the explosives inserted in their breasts under techniques similar to breast enhancing surgery. The lethal explosives – usually PETN (pentaerythritol Tetrabitrate) – are inserted during the operation inside the plastic shapes. The breast is then sewn up. The explosive is activated with a syringe like those used by diabetics.

A similar procedure has been developed for men, with the explosive inserted into the buttocks or appendix region.

Thanks to feedback for this update.

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AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 1/22/10

Mike Russell — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 04:53:58 +0000

NightWatch

For the Night of 22 January 2010

South Korea-North Korea: The North agreed to continue economic talks about developing further the Kaesong joint industrial park. The North offered to hold working-level talks in the North’s border city of Kaesong on Tuesday to discuss border crossings, customs clearance, and the use of mobile phones and Internet for South Korean companies in the complex, Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said. South Korea will review the proposal, Chun said.

Separately, the North also proposed to hold talks on resuming cross border tours on 26 and 27 January at Mount Kumgang, a favorite tourist site on the east coast. The tours were suspended in December 2008 after a North Korean soldier shot and killed South Korean tourist who had entered a restricted zone.

South Korea has not yet decided whether it will accept the proposal because of the threats the North’s National Defense Commission issued in reaction to the announcement of the South’s Operation Plan 5029. “We’re carefully examining the North Korean proposal in consideration of recent changes in inter-Korean relations,” Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said in a briefing. “No decision has been made yet as to whether we’ll accept the proposal.”

The day after the North proposed talks on the tours, the National Defense Commission threatened a “sacred” battle against South Korea if it executed its plan for responding to a regime collapse in Pyongyang by invading North Korea.

Sri Lanka: Police said a blast destroyed a car and severely damaged the home of Tiran Alles, a key ally of opposition presidential candidate retired Army General Sarath Fonseka; Alles and his family escaped unharmed, Agence France-Presse reported today. A police official on scene stated that the attackers are believed to driven up in a van, carried out the attack and fled.

Fonseka is the leading challenger opposing incumbent President Rajapaksa in the presidential election campaign on 26 January. The government denounced the attack, fearing a backlash that would favor Fonseka, according to The Hindu.

As Army chief, General Fonseka led the military campaign that ended the Tamil insurgency. Now he is the candidate the Tamils support. In his campaign, Fonseka said he will see to it that “every citizen who hasn’t got an inch of land gets ownership in this motherland. If the raging corruption and frauds now raging in the country and which is eating up the economy can be eradicated, developing the country is no big task.”

India-Terror Threat: India placed its airports and national carriers on high security alert on 22 January based on intelligence reports that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LT) has acquired 50 paragliding kits and is plotting to hijack an Indian plane.

Indian Home Ministry sources said they had received “credible intelligence” that LT operatives were receiving training in paragliding allegedly with the help of Pakistani forces.

The Indian Express newspaper, reported intelligence officials had uncovered a plot by militants linked to al Qaida and the LT to hijack an Indian flight destined for a neighboring country. A Home Ministry spokesman said besides tight security, passengers were being subjected to intense security screenings. In addition, radars located on the borders have been ordered to track all low-flying objects and the air force has been asked to shoot them down.

Other reports stated the Indians are aware of no specific flights that have been targeted. The key point of the announcement is the Indian expectation that the threat will originate from Pakistan. Secretary Gates warned the Pakistanis during his visit to Islamabad that Indian patience is running out, according to Pakistani media.

Pakistan-US: Pakistani military leaders told visiting US Defense Secretary Gates that they require six months to a year to consolidate gains from their recently concluded operations in South Waziristan and have no plans to extend those operations into North Waziristan, which is the reputed stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban. They did say the armed forces would raid targets of opportunity.

Today, they executed the first of these raids. Pakistani forces, supported by helicopter gunships, attacked a rebel hideout near Miramshah, Dawn News reported, citing officials. Fifteen militants were killed, according to the Daily Times.

Comment: Secretary Gates made headlines repeatedly during his short visit. One that stands out is his assertion that the linkages among the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban and al Qaida make it pointless to try to distinguish among them. While that idea simplifies US targeting, Pakistanis do not accept it.

In Kabul, Secretary Gates observed that the Afghan Taliban are an integral part of Afghan society. The same cannot be said of the Pakistani Taliban at all, as Pakistani analysts have pointed out in Pakistani newspapers. Even the Pashtuns in Pakistan consider the Pakistani Taliban to be violent outlaws.

Pakistan-Afghanistan-Turkey: For the record. A senior Pakistani official said Turks are playing a role behind the scenes in mending relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Reuters reported. The official said that the Turks are among those working on negotiations with some Taliban elements and that there is “a lot happening behind the scenes that people don’t know about.”

Afghanistan: Pakistan’s Daily Times reported that on 22 January Afghan President Karzai decreed a ban on the sale and possession of ammonium nitrate fertilizer, which is used in most of the Taliban’s homemade bombs. “The import, production, possession, use, purchase and sale of ammonium nitrate fertilizer is banned,” the president’s decree said.

According to the decree, anyone in possession of the fertilizer must hand it over to branches of the Ministry of Agriculture within 30 days. The Interior and Finance ministries are to train police and customs employees to detect, recognize and seize the chemical, which is imported primarily from Pakistan.

The Pakistani fertilizer factories face a dip in sales. Emerging Asia published a study in January 2009 that quoted the CNFA Country Director who estimated Afghan fertilizer demand at 1 million metric tons, and imports of fertilizer from Pakistan at 500,000 metric tons. One estimate is that only about 5% of the imported ammonium nitrate is used in Afghan agriculture. The Emerging Asia study reported Afghan farmers commonly use urea or DAP, so the total ban should have little impact on agriculture.

This will be difficult to enforce because of corruption at every link in the fertilizer supply chain that must include government officials, politicians, security officers and local businessmen and warlords. The ban is an overdue first step. Assuming the government can cut the imports, this is tonight’s good news.

(Note: CNFA is a non-profit international development organization dedicated to improving the income of farmers and rural communities in less developed countries.)

Security. Update. NightWatch is completing the research on fighting in December. Open source reporting on the insurgency in December shows a significant drop in clashes; fewer districts experiencing attacks and a decline in Taliban-initiated actions. Coalition fatalities were down by about 50%, despite the sensational suicide bombing at FOB Chapman in Khost Province on 30 December. More on this later.

Russia-Poland-US: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today dismissed the idea of working with the United States on missile defense, and asked for the reason why Washington plans to station missiles near Poland’s border with Russia, when it appears Warsaw is strengthening against Moscow, DPA reported.

This is the first direct high level Russian response to the announcement this week by the Polish Minister of Defense concerning the basing of Patriot missiles opposite Kaliningrad. The Russian Navy also said it plans to strengthen its forces that operate from Kaliningrad.

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AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 1/12/10

Mike Russell — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 16:43:28 +0000

NightWatch

For the Night of 12 January 2010

North Korea: Reuters reported on 12 January that North Korea’s Ambassador to China, Choe Jin Su, said Six Party Talks could resume only after the lifting of sanctions on North Korea and acceptance of its latest proposal for peace treaty talks. He said concluding a peace treaty can eradicate hostile relations between North Korea and the United States and rapidly advance denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. He added that if sanctions are lifted, Six Party Talks can resume immediately.

Today’s statement is a clarification of the North’s latest offer of talks. It reinforces the hypothesis that the leadership in Pyongyang has adjusted its negotiating strategy. The path to ending the North’s nuclear program runs through lifting sanctions and peace treaty talks. The North is offering what it considers a package deal to normalize conditions on the peninsula and remove the justification for a US military presence. It is not promising to give up nuclear weapons already built.

China: In a terse statement yesterday, Chinese media announced a successful test of a land-based ballistic missile defense system. The announcement contained no details that described the system or the test.

Apparently, something the Chinese launched worked because the US protested today that China did not give the United States prior notification of the test. The US has asked the Chinese Government to clarify its intentions for the intercept weaponry, Agence France-Presse reported, citing a statement from a Pentagon spokesperson. The statement said the US detected two missile launches, with an exo-atmospheric collision observed by space-based sensors.

Details in the public domain are incomplete. China is known to have fielded advanced Russian and advanced indigenously developed anti-missile systems. It also has land-based missiles capable of destroying satellites.

The timing suggests this is reaction to US plans to sell Taiwan advanced anti-ballistic missile systems and eight Perry-class frigates, which the US Navy no longer requires.

The Chinese warned the US against selling arms to Taiwan while expecting Chinese cooperation on other international issues. A commentary published by Xinhua warned of broader fallout from the Patriot missile deal. “Each time the United States has sold weapons to Taiwan, there has been huge damage to China-US relations,” said the commentary. “This US arms sale to Taiwan will be no exception.” US-Chinese relations are entering a period of increased tension in reaction to the arms sales.

Philippines: A Saudi man dressed as a pilot was arrested 12 January after entering a restricted area in the Philippines’ primary airport, The News International reported, citing airport General Manager Alfonso Cusi. Cusi said the 19-year-old man misrepresented himself as a pilot of Saudia.

This might have no significance, but the Philippines has been a venue for testing new terrorist tactics in the past.

Pakistan-Afghanistan: Inter-Services Intelligence Director-General, Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, told the parliamentary Special Committee on National Security on 12 January that infiltration of militants from the Afghan border must be stopped for Pakistan to have peace, Dawn News reported. The drug mafia supports rebels who are causing unrest in Pakistan, Pasha said. The chair of the committee, Raza Rabbani, later briefed the media. The committee discussed the implications of the U.S. President’s Afghan policy and possible effects on Pakistani sovereignty, the Associated Press of Pakistan reported.

General Pasha is one of the leaders in the media counter-attack whereby Pakistan blames Afghanistan for Pakistan’s internal security problems.

Iran: An Iranian nuclear scientist and Tehran University professor, Masoud Ali-Mohammadi, was killed by a remote-controlled bomb outside his home in northern Tehran on 12 January. News agencies have claimed that “counter-revolutionary” agents, including those working with the US, MEK and “Zionist regime”, were behind the attack, however ambiguities surrounding his death, as well as his political leanings, remain.

One brilliant and perceptive reader asked: “Where was Iranian security that it failed to protect one of Iran’s nuclear scientists?”

Czech Republic-NATO: Today, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Kohout said at a conference in Prague discussing the NATO alliance that Eastern European members hope to re-confirm Article 5 of the NATO charter, DPA reported. This is the article that commits all members to the proposition that an attack against one is an attack against all.

The US invoked Article 5 to obligate NATO members to fight with the US after the 9/11 attack. The newest members of NATO, especially the Baltic states, require reassurance about the wisdom of their commitment to NATO.

The Russians, under Putin, have not given up on recovering from NATO parts of the Soviet sphere of influence. The Eastern European NATO members are acutely aware of Russian intentions.

Honduras: The Honduran Congress discussed today the possibility of amnesty for all involved in the June 2009 coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya, Xinhua reported. Congressional leader Jose Saavedra called lawmakers into session for the discussion.

This must be especially frustrating for Zelaya since his party holds the largest bloc in the Congress.

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AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 12/28/09

Mike Russell — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 16:49:49 +0000

NightWatch

For the Night of 28 December 2009

North Korea: Update. The Ministry of Public Security has imposed a “complete prohibition of foreign currency usage.” The decree was issued on 26 December and went into effect on the 28th.

According to a Daily NK source inside North Hamkyung Province reported, “A declaration on banning the use of U.S. dollars, Yuan and the Euro was publicized on the 26th. The declaration was posted in public places and in every work place starting this morning (28 December).”

A source from Yangkang Province also reported, “From December 28, no foreign currencies can be used. The foreign currencies the declaration meant were dollars, Yuan and the Euro.” According to the source, the cabinet decided this new regulation.

The title of the declaration is, “On punishing severely those who use foreign currencies within our Republic.” The declaration stipulates, “Not for any reason may individuals or organizations possess any foreign currency, with the exception of banks.” Trading enterprises or foreign currency earning organizations are directed to put earned foreign currency in the bank within 24 hours and, if they fail to do so, managers will be punished.

The declaration also states, “All the foreign currencies held by trading enterprises should be put in the bank and, when it is needed for trade, it can be withdrawn after obtaining approval.” Foreigners, meanwhile, have to deposit their currency into a designated account and exchange it for North Korean won.

Apparently, one aim of the currency reform is to strengthen the North Korean currency, which is worthless outside North Korea. Those analysts who speculated that the currency reform somehow was intended to support a plan for opening the economy mistook opening for recentralization of the statist system.

North Korea-US: The Korean Central News Agency confirmed in a brief report, “A U.S. citizen illegally entered the country across the North Korea-China border and has been detained. The person is currently undergoing questioning by a related agency.”

Robert Park, a Korean American fundamentalist Christian, has not been heard of since Christmas Day, when he walked across the frozen Tumen River that borders North Korea and China. Based on comments Park made to Reuters last week, he intended to be arrested and was willing to be executed, if necessary, to draw attention to human rights abuses.

North Korea eventually will expel him, after interrogation, and arrest and torture anyone who helped him inside North Korea.

Pakistan: Security. At least 30 people have been killed and dozens injured in a suicide bombing of a Shia Muslim procession in Karachi, officials said. Ashura on Monday was the climax of the holy period that commemorates the death of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson.

The attacker was in a procession with tens of thousands of people, according to the Interior Minister. After the explosion, marchers turned their anger on ambulance workers, security forces and journalists. Rioters torched dozens of shops and vehicles, while members of the security forces who had been guarding the procession were pelted with stones.

Pakistan’s security forces have been on high alert as Shia Muslims marked the holy month of Muharram. Obviously this was another in a long line of security lapses. The Shiites will retaliate.

Iran: At least 15 people were killed yesterday during massive anti-government protests in Tehran when opposition supporters clashed with security forces in the streets, Iranian state television reported Monday.

The report said 10 people killed during Sunday’s fierce clashes in the Iranian capital were members of “anti-revolutionary terrorist” groups, apparently referring to opposition supporters. The other five who died were killed by “terrorist groups” in a “suspicious act,” the report said, without elaborating.

Iranian security forces stormed a series of opposition offices on Monday, rounding up at least seven prominent anti-government activists in a new crackdown against the country’s reformist movement, opposition Web sites and activists reported.

Comment: An overreaction phase is in progress. One source reported the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is interested in making concessions to the opposition but is prevented by hardliners, presumably in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards.

The pattern conforms to the model. Every crackdown has been followed by a worsening of the opposition in terms of more and more daring outbreaks in more cities and then a relaxation of the restrictions. The sequence of crackdowns that have failed to suppress the opposition has fostered is expansion beyond the ranks of the university students and opposition clerics. A wider portion of the voting public appears to be sympathetic if not supportive.

Opposition blogs claim isolated incidents in which security force members have refused to fire on protestors or have joined them. The reports about refusals to obey orders are unconfirmed. However, this is a critical indicator of deteriorating internal instability conditions that always lead to power sharing.

Somalia anti-piracy patrol: Chinese state media say a hijacked Chinese cargo ship and 25 sailors have been rescued two months after they were seized by pirates off the Somali coast. Xinhua reported the ship and crew were rescued early Monday morning, but didn’t say whether the ship was retaken by force or if a ransom was paid. A Somali pirate outlet reported China paid a ransom of $4 million.

The De Xin Hai was seized 19 October about 700 miles (east of the Somali coast. It is the first Chinese vessel to be hijacked since China deployed a three-ship squadron to the Gulf of Aden last year to join the international anti-piracy flotilla.

End of NightWatch for 28 December.

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AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 12/16/09

Mike Russell — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 04:54:08 +0000

NightWatch

For the Night of 16 December 2009

North Korea: Chosen Ilbo reported that North Korea plans to ban foreigners from the country from 20 December until early February. A South Korean source said the North Korean Embassy in Beijing has stopped issuing visas for foreigners.

Agence France-Presse reported two divergent explanations for the extended closure. One is to provide a window of security for a future visit by Kim Chong-il to Beijing. Kim always travels by train so the primary route and spur lines must be secured and possibly improved.

The alternate explanation is that the public hostility to the currency reform is much worse than has been reported and unrest is more widespread.

Comment: In the NightWatch experience, a ban on foreigners has only occurred during semi-war alert conditions as a precaution in a crisis with the UN Command or during a major Allied military exercise; during an internal crisis, such as the revolt in 1995 by the now disbanded Sixth Army Corps; or to control an epidemic.

– During semi-war alerts, the borders are closed to everyone and foreigners are expelled or restricted, but internal movement by Koreans is allowed.

– During an internal crisis, the border is closed to foreigners and foreigners are expelled, but external activities by Koreans usually continue.

– To prevent the spread of an epidemic, almost all internal movement ceases in addition to a ban on movements across the border. North Korea simply stops, except for public health officials.

The full extent of movement restrictions probably is not yet available. The limited information in the public domain points to an internal crisis. North Korean leaders would prefer to hide from foreign observation outbreaks of unrest in their people’s paradise.

An upheaval in the leadership also would justify a ban on foreigners, but none has been reported by any open source.

Concerning the currency reform and exchange, sources in a South Korean-based NGO that operates in the North reported that prices soared in open air markets following the currency exchange, prompting the government to shut them down for three days. This currency reform has proven much more troublesome than the policy makers anticipated. It was supposed to have been completed by 6 December.

North Korea-France: The French government wants to establish with North Korea permanent cooperation in humanitarianism, culture and linguistics, while not formally establishing immediate diplomatic relations, French envoy for North Korea Jack Lang said 16 December as reported by Agence France-Presse. Lang said Paris awaits Pyongyang’s response.

The French have a practice of probing for opportunities in Asia by using culture and linguistics, sometimes trying to poach on American interests. The French government operates many language schools and cultural centers in Southeast Asia for this purpose.

India-Kashmir: Indian Minister of State for Home Affairs Ajay Maken told Parliament this week that about 700 militants are operating in the India’s Jammu and Kashmir State. In his written statement, Maken said the militants appear to receive “every type of assistance including money and material from across the border,” referring to Pakistani-controlled Azad Kashmir.

The significance of this figure is that it shows a reduction through 2009. The official number of militants reported in early 2009 was more than 800. The security situation inside Kashmir is usually managed by uniformed police, with occasional assistance from paramilitary police – an important benchmark of an improving security situation.

Pakistan: This week, news services have reported actions in multiple separate venues that indicate Pakistani leaders have reached the limits of their overt counter-terror cooperation with the US. They seem already to be preparing for the beginning of the US force drawdown from Afghanistan because 18 months is not a long time to rebuild strategic connections.

President Zardari has resisted President Obama’s direct appeal for the rapid expansion of Pakistani counterinsurgency operations in tribal areas, according to the Washington Post today. In a letter to Obama, Zardari wrote that Pakistan will act against insurgents based on its own timeline and operational needs. He asked the United States to accelerate military assistance to Pakistani forces and to act more forcefully against Pakistan’s historic enemy.

Yesterday the New York Times reported that senior Pakistani military officers and diplomats said Pakistan would not execute operations against the Haqqani network, which operates from North Waziristan. Haqqani’s network is the most vicious of the anti-Afghan government insurgent groups and is considered responsible for most, if not all, sensational suicide bombings in Kabul, plus the ambush of the French forces last summer outside Kabul.

The Pakistanis said they are overextended, executing operations in their own national interest. The Times report said the real reason for Pakistan’s position is a lack of faith in the US troop surge and a need to position itself for any regional adjustment that might start once the Americans begin to withdraw from Afghanistan

The Associated Press reported today that visas for U.S. diplomats and military service members have been held up by Pakistan; diplomats have been stopped repeatedly at checkpoints and American cars are searched in what appears to be a response to U.S. expansion of operations in Pakistan, said a senior U.S. diplomat. The official said the reaction is likely temporary and that the United States only intends to ask Pakistan to relent.

Other commentators have reported Pakistani intelligence is restoring/expanding its contacts with the Afghan Taliban. A senior politician associated with former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told the press today that Pakistan’s Taliban problem would become much more manageable after US troops withdraw from Afghanistan. And Prime Minister Gilani again denounced US drone attacks.

Rightly or not, senior Pakistanis already have begun behaving they way they do when they expect the US to leave, which they contend is characteristic of US policy towards South Asia. Even Musharraf was reputed to consider the US an inconstant ally. For them, this is back to the future.

Politics. The Supreme Court today found unconstitutional Musharraf’s National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) that suspended prosecution cases for corruption and graft against more than 8,000 politicians and bureaucrats. They include the late Benazir Bhutto and President Zardari himself, plus the Defense and Interior Ministers and senior government advisors.

Speaking for a 17-member bench of the Supreme Court, Chief Justice Chaudhry said, “The NRO is in conflict with the constitution.” The Court also ordered restoration of all cases that had been suspended by Musharraf in October 2007, including those against President Zardari, one of which involves money laundering case in a Swiss court.

Zardari has immunity from prosecution while he remains in office, but can be impeached and removed by action of the national and provincial parliaments, whose members elect the President. Musharraf resigned in August 2008 under threat of impeachment. Many of the 8,000 beneficiaries from the NRO could face immediate arrest.

Opposition politicians and lawyers hailed the ruling as a landmark. “It is a defining moment for the judiciary,” said Hafeez Pirzada, a former law minister and a leading constitutional lawyer.

The end of the amnesty was greeted tonight in Zardari’s home province of Sindh with protests. Sporadic bursts of gunfire were reported in Karachi. The President’s chief spokesman said that he would respect the court’s decision.

Comment: There is no indication that Zardari intends to resign, but his ability to function effectively has been undermined. Zardari is a political lame duck and a liability.

For the Supreme Court to move so swiftly and boldly – essentially within a month of inviting petitions – a host of back channel communications, assurances and deals must be in place joining the Army, the Court and the leaders of the top political parties to ensure civil order. Chief Justice Chaudhry would not have acted without securing support.

While the ruling is a powerful move to restore the rule of law, it risks creating political uncertainty until parliament restores in full the executive powers of the Prime Minister.

The ruling is not a large step towards political normality, however, because even the groups backing the Chief Justice share few political values aside from wanting to rid the country of Zardari and his venal friends. As leader of the legal profession, the Chief Justice wants to ensure rule of law under all circumstances. The civilian politicians, especially Nawaz Sharif, want to ensure the Army never returns to power again. The Army reserves the right to overthrow the government to preserve the country, but not just now.

For all parties, this ruling gives them an iron-clad justification to resist outside pressure for greater security cooperation, while Pakistan gets its political house in order. NightWatch judges that effect is not an accident of timing.

NightWatch expects that Pakistani relations with almost all countries, except China, will become increasingly prickly in the next few months until after Zardari’s future is settled.

Afghanistan: Today a media outlet for the Afghan Taliban posted to its web site an announcement that the Taliban soon will release a new video of the US Army soldier captured on 30 June, according to a report by The Associated Press.

The US Defense Department press secretary said recovering the US soldier is a top priority for US forces. Nevertheless, it is astonishing that nearly six months have passed without rescue, despite the drones, high tech systems and the best trained forces in the world.

Iran: On 16 December Iran test fired an upgraded version of a solid fueled missile capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe. The test of the Sejjil-2 reportedly was a success.

The timing of the launch is exquisite, just days after the US announced a forthcoming test of its ballistic missile defense system… in January. The behavioral style is almost identical to the North Koreans who insist on staging provocative acts to demonstrate defiance and that they are not intimidated by the threat of sanctions.

Speaking to the Danish media in Copenhagen, President Ahmadi-Nejad criticized the US military intervention in Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries. He called on Washington to apply major changes to its policies, arguing that “the US like any other country has certain geographical boundaries and should keep to its borders.”

Iraq –Oil: Yesterday Asia Times Online posted a thoughtful article by “Pepe Escobar” who summarized the results of Iraq’s oil concession auction, which was televised in a mimic of “American Idol,” entitled “Oil Idol.” The big winners are Russian and Chinese companies, followed by Indian, Malaysian, French, Japanese and several others in various consortia. As described the auction and the terms for winning bids appear to have been crafted deliberately to discourage the American oil companies—Exxon-Mobil-Shell won a single concession in November. The article is worth reading, despite its tart treatment of the issues and personalities.

Escobar’s most trenchant prediction is, “What the early 2010s will definitely see is the rise of a relatively wealthy, Shi’ite-controlled Iraq friendly with Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.”

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