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NightWatch

For the Night of 4 February 2010

North Korea: Update. The state news medium Korean Central News Agency reported today that Robert Park will be released. “The relevant organ of the DPRK (North Korea) decided to leniently forgive and release him, taking his admission and sincere repentance of his wrong doings into consideration.”

“What I have seen and heard in the DPRK convinced me that I misunderstood it. So I seriously repented of the wrong I committed, taken in by the West’s false propaganda,” KCNA quoted Park as saying.

Pubic repentance that embellishes the regime is a normal condition for leniency in North Korea’s communist system. This is modest good news. That means only one American is now in custody in the North.

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China-Iran-UN: Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said discussions about imposing sanctions on Iran complicate the situation and make it harder to find a diplomatic solution, Reuters reported 4 February. During Yang’s visit to France, he said he wanted to see more direct talks between Iran and the international community over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.Yang said China firmly supports international nuclear non-proliferation, adding that all countries, Iran included, have a right to peaceful use of nuclear energy if they obey the International Atomic Energy Agency’s rules.

This represents no change in Chinese policy. There was no indication of change prior to the announcement of US arms sales to Taiwan and there is no change since that announcement. US arms sales to Taiwan are irrelevant to China’s attitude towards Iran’s nuclear program and the economic benefits from the Iran connection.

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India: Home Minister Chidambaram disclosed for the first time that an Indian national by the name of Abu Jindal could have been involved in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, Pakistan’s Dawn News reported 4 February.

Chidambaram said voice samples from the suspect were absolutely necessary to establish his identity, and claimed that Pakistani authorities recorded Jindal’s voice through phone conversations. Chidambaram asked the Pakistani government to provide phone records, but Pakistan refused. He said India suspected Jindal’s involvement for several months.

The significance of this disclosure is that it opens an avenue for India and Pakistan to cooperate in the Mumbai investigation without indicting or embarrassing Pakistan. That could be a first step towards settling deeper differences over the Mumbai attacks. Relations will not return to a normal track until India completes its investigation of the Mumbai terrorists attacks and that will require continuing cooperation by Pakistani law enforcement agencies.

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Pakistan: Intelligence sources were quoted as stating that there are reports of terrorist threats in Punjab province during the next 48 hours, GEO News reported Feb. 4. According to intelligence sources, some Punjab cities, especially Lahore and Rawalpindi, may be hit by terrorist activities. Officials said militants may hit markets, bazaars, schools and colleges, adding that law enforcement agencies are considered a special target

Afghanistan: General Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, said 4 February that while the situation in Afghanistan still is serious, it is no longer deteriorating, Reuters reported. McChrystal said U.S. and NATO forces in the country have not yet “turned the corner” on stability but that the situation has improved from last summer.

Comment: The NightWatch analysis reported months ago is that the Taliban have failed to expand beyond their Pashtun base.  Detailed reports on combat in the past two weeks continue to reinforce the conclusion that the Taliban have failed to evolve into a revolutionary movement of broad appeal and, thus, have peaked.

There also is no sign of a large Taliban combat surge this winter, despite some ISAF predictions to the contrary in December, which have proven to be inaccurate. This winter is a lot like most of the past. The anti-government fighters appear to be riding out the winter, with the occasional sensational attack by the Haqqani syndicate. Most of the fighting in January appears to be NATO-initiated.

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Iran-Russia: Update. Technical issues have held up delivery of advanced S-300 air defense systems to Iran, according to RIA Novosti. Iran’s Ambassador to Russia said Russia has assured Tehran that Moscow will fulfill its obligations.

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Ukraine: Today, President Yushchenko signed amendments to election laws just before the 7 February presidential runoff, the presidential website said, reported RIA Novosti. The amendments remove the need for candidates’ representatives to supervise vote counting at polling stations.

The significance of the amendments is that they favor pro-Moscow candidate Yanukovich. Yushchenko’s supporters are urged to vote “against all,” which is a ballot option for disenfranchisement.

Prime Minister and presidential candidate Yulia Timoshenko — the target of Yushchenko’s action –has threatened to call mass protests, saying the amendments “open the way to election fraud.” The amendments were proposed by Timoshenko rival Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions.

Yushchenko’s disdain for Timoshenko appears to exceed his contempt for Yanukovich so much that he would take action to risk Ukraine’s pro-western orientation, which he cultivated, to prevent Timoshenko’s elections as his successor. If Yanukovich wins, Ukraine will move east in its security policies at least. This is a study in democracy.

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Romania: Romanian President Basescu said 4 February that a U.S. antimissile defense system in Romania will be operational in 2015, Mediafax reported. Basescu said he accepted a proposal by U.S. President Obama to participate in the system and host elements of it. The offer was delivered by the U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control in a 4 February meeting with Basescu.

The Romanian Supreme Defense Council announced today that it has approved the U.S. plans to place land-based ballistic missile defense (BMD) interceptors on its territory. After negotiations, the two countries need to sign agreements that must be ratified by the Romanian parliament.

The significance of this announcement is that Romania will join Poland as the hosts of the ballistic missile defense system. The Czechs lose out on the money and money appears to be the main attractor.

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Terrorism: Agents for Britain’s MI5 intelligence service reportedly have discovered that Muslim doctors trained at some of Britain’s leading teaching hospitals have returned to their own countries to fit surgical implants filled with explosives. Women suicide bombers recruited by al-Qaida are known to have had the explosives inserted in their breasts under techniques similar to breast enhancing surgery. The lethal explosives – usually PETN (pentaerythritol Tetrabitrate) – are inserted during the operation inside the plastic shapes. The breast is then sewn up. The explosive is activated with a syringe like those used by diabetics.

A similar procedure has been developed for men, with the explosive inserted into the buttocks or appendix region.

Thanks to feedback for this update.

via nightwatch.afcea.org from planetrussell’s | [pre]posterous

NightWatch

For the Night of 22 January 2010

South Korea-North Korea: The North agreed to continue economic talks about developing further the Kaesong joint industrial park. The North offered to hold working-level talks in the North’s border city of Kaesong on Tuesday to discuss border crossings, customs clearance, and the use of mobile phones and Internet for South Korean companies in the complex, Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said. South Korea will review the proposal, Chun said.

Separately, the North also proposed to hold talks on resuming cross border tours on 26 and 27 January at Mount Kumgang, a favorite tourist site on the east coast. The tours were suspended in December 2008 after a North Korean soldier shot and killed South Korean tourist who had entered a restricted zone.

South Korea has not yet decided whether it will accept the proposal because of the threats the North’s National Defense Commission issued in reaction to the announcement of the South’s Operation Plan 5029. “We’re carefully examining the North Korean proposal in consideration of recent changes in inter-Korean relations,” Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said in a briefing. “No decision has been made yet as to whether we’ll accept the proposal.”

The day after the North proposed talks on the tours, the National Defense Commission threatened a “sacred” battle against South Korea if it executed its plan for responding to a regime collapse in Pyongyang by invading North Korea.

Sri Lanka: Police said a blast destroyed a car and severely damaged the home of Tiran Alles, a key ally of opposition presidential candidate retired Army General Sarath Fonseka; Alles and his family escaped unharmed, Agence France-Presse reported today. A police official on scene stated that the attackers are believed to driven up in a van, carried out the attack and fled.

Fonseka is the leading challenger opposing incumbent President Rajapaksa in the presidential election campaign on 26 January. The government denounced the attack, fearing a backlash that would favor Fonseka, according to The Hindu.

As Army chief, General Fonseka led the military campaign that ended the Tamil insurgency. Now he is the candidate the Tamils support. In his campaign, Fonseka said he will see to it that “every citizen who hasn’t got an inch of land gets ownership in this motherland. If the raging corruption and frauds now raging in the country and which is eating up the economy can be eradicated, developing the country is no big task.”

India-Terror Threat: India placed its airports and national carriers on high security alert on 22 January based on intelligence reports that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LT) has acquired 50 paragliding kits and is plotting to hijack an Indian plane.

Indian Home Ministry sources said they had received “credible intelligence” that LT operatives were receiving training in paragliding allegedly with the help of Pakistani forces.

The Indian Express newspaper, reported intelligence officials had uncovered a plot by militants linked to al Qaida and the LT to hijack an Indian flight destined for a neighboring country. A Home Ministry spokesman said besides tight security, passengers were being subjected to intense security screenings. In addition, radars located on the borders have been ordered to track all low-flying objects and the air force has been asked to shoot them down.

Other reports stated the Indians are aware of no specific flights that have been targeted. The key point of the announcement is the Indian expectation that the threat will originate from Pakistan. Secretary Gates warned the Pakistanis during his visit to Islamabad that Indian patience is running out, according to Pakistani media.

Pakistan-US: Pakistani military leaders told visiting US Defense Secretary Gates that they require six months to a year to consolidate gains from their recently concluded operations in South Waziristan and have no plans to extend those operations into North Waziristan, which is the reputed stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban. They did say the armed forces would raid targets of opportunity.

Today, they executed the first of these raids. Pakistani forces, supported by helicopter gunships, attacked a rebel hideout near Miramshah, Dawn News reported, citing officials. Fifteen militants were killed, according to the Daily Times.

Comment: Secretary Gates made headlines repeatedly during his short visit. One that stands out is his assertion that the linkages among the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban and al Qaida make it pointless to try to distinguish among them. While that idea simplifies US targeting, Pakistanis do not accept it.

In Kabul, Secretary Gates observed that the Afghan Taliban are an integral part of Afghan society. The same cannot be said of the Pakistani Taliban at all, as Pakistani analysts have pointed out in Pakistani newspapers. Even the Pashtuns in Pakistan consider the Pakistani Taliban to be violent outlaws.

Pakistan-Afghanistan-Turkey: For the record. A senior Pakistani official said Turks are playing a role behind the scenes in mending relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Reuters reported. The official said that the Turks are among those working on negotiations with some Taliban elements and that there is “a lot happening behind the scenes that people don’t know about.”

Afghanistan: Pakistan’s Daily Times reported that on 22 January Afghan President Karzai decreed a ban on the sale and possession of ammonium nitrate fertilizer, which is used in most of the Taliban’s homemade bombs. “The import, production, possession, use, purchase and sale of ammonium nitrate fertilizer is banned,” the president’s decree said.

According to the decree, anyone in possession of the fertilizer must hand it over to branches of the Ministry of Agriculture within 30 days. The Interior and Finance ministries are to train police and customs employees to detect, recognize and seize the chemical, which is imported primarily from Pakistan.

The Pakistani fertilizer factories face a dip in sales. Emerging Asia published a study in January 2009 that quoted the CNFA Country Director who estimated Afghan fertilizer demand at 1 million metric tons, and imports of fertilizer from Pakistan at 500,000 metric tons. One estimate is that only about 5% of the imported ammonium nitrate is used in Afghan agriculture. The Emerging Asia study reported Afghan farmers commonly use urea or DAP, so the total ban should have little impact on agriculture.

This will be difficult to enforce because of corruption at every link in the fertilizer supply chain that must include government officials, politicians, security officers and local businessmen and warlords. The ban is an overdue first step. Assuming the government can cut the imports, this is tonight’s good news.

(Note: CNFA is a non-profit international development organization dedicated to improving the income of farmers and rural communities in less developed countries.)

Security. Update. NightWatch is completing the research on fighting in December. Open source reporting on the insurgency in December shows a significant drop in clashes; fewer districts experiencing attacks and a decline in Taliban-initiated actions. Coalition fatalities were down by about 50%, despite the sensational suicide bombing at FOB Chapman in Khost Province on 30 December. More on this later.

Russia-Poland-US: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today dismissed the idea of working with the United States on missile defense, and asked for the reason why Washington plans to station missiles near Poland’s border with Russia, when it appears Warsaw is strengthening against Moscow, DPA reported.

This is the first direct high level Russian response to the announcement this week by the Polish Minister of Defense concerning the basing of Patriot missiles opposite Kaliningrad. The Russian Navy also said it plans to strengthen its forces that operate from Kaliningrad.