AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 9/8/09
About this post: The post below is my edited summary of John McCreary’s informative, unclassified/open source NightWatch Global Intelligence Update.
NightWatch is published by AFCEA, the Armed Forces Communications & Electronics Assn., of which I am a member. Past editions of NightWatch are archived here in their entirety.
UPDATES BY COUNTRY:
North Korea: Mainichi Daily News Online claimed to have obtained three documents that reinforce reports that Kim Chong-il’s third son, Kim Chong-un (Kim Jong Un) will be the next leader.
Kim Jong Un
Kim Jong Un“The three documents include one titled ‘Educational Resources on the Greatness of our Revered General Kim Jong Un,’ apparently used as a textbook for high-ranking officials at North Korea’s Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces and secret police to learn how to ‘admire’ Kim Jong Un. The ‘educational resources’ comprise five items, including one describing the greatness of Kim Jong Un and another explaining why the issue of succession is an important matter to Juche (self-reliance) policy.”
“Another document introduces a statement by Kim Jong Il, saying that Kim Jong Un is highly competent and has a broad military perspective, adding that: ‘Our revered General Kim Jong Un is the one and only successor who can lead our military and people. …Anyone who meets him (Kim Jong Un) is fascinated by him,’ the text says, as well as praising him as “a military talent who has genius wisdom and policy” and that he “resembles our great general (Kim Jong Il) so much in appearance.”
“The documents also state that Kim Jong Un commanded the air force as a ‘vengeful commander’ when there were mounting calls in Japan and the United States for intercepting the North Korean missile in April, and that Kim Jong Il once joked that an enemy country would suffer if Kim Jong Un chose to counterattack.”
“A document apparently compiled by the North’s secret police urges a prompt preparation for the succession of the leadership, saying, ‘It is hoped that our General Kim (Jong Un) is crowned as the successor of our dear leader General (Kim Jong Il) as soon as possible, so that the burden of our dear leader is lessened.’”
Comment: The documents probably were leaked but leave little doubt that Chong-un will be the next leader. The haste with which his completely fictitious leadership story has been concocted reinforces assessments that Kim Chong-il could die suddenly. Chong-un has lived in Switzerland and, like his father, has never served a day in a military uniform, except for playing dress-up. The actions ascribed to the 26-year old are fabrications.
China-India: A Chinese government spokesman said Chinese troops did not cross into India’s Ladakh region in eastern Jammu and Kashmir State, refuting Indian media reports, Voice of America reported today. The Indians claim Chinese troops sprayed red point on boulders and rocks more than a kilometer in Indian territory near Mount Gya.
This is the second Indian claim of an incursion by Chinese forces. Last week India said a Chinese helicopter violated Indian air space. The Indians naturally never report what Indian border forces might have done to provoke the Chinese. Usually both sides engage in moving border markers or making insulting gestures during boring border duty on the roof the world.
The more serious border dispute concerns the northern border of Arunachal Pradesh State, in eastern India. China has recently restated its longstanding position that the border remains in dispute and part of the State is Chinese territory. Both China and India are strengthening conventional forces along the eastern border. That usually is a precursor to shooting across the border.
India-United Arab Emirates: Indian authorities said today that they will release the UAE C-130 transport aircraft that has been detained at the Kolkata (Calcutta) Airport, ExpressBuzz reported. UAE Authorities apologized for failing to declare that the aircraft was carrying ammunition and weapons, including at least one missile, to China.
India’s External Affairs Ministry said the issue was not the presence of weapons aboard the plane, but the fact that they were not initially declared. Minister S.M. Krishna said India “will facilitate the early release of the aircraft,” according to the Times of India.
What reason, pray, would the UAE have to ship ammunition and weapons to China?
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- Hamid Karzai
Afghanistan: Update. President Karzai holds 54.1 percent of the presidential vote, enough to avoid a run-off election that would be required if the percentage were below 50 percent, Al Jazeera reported today, citing the Independent Election Commission. With 91.6 percent of the votes tallied, primary rival Abdullah Abdullah has fallen to 28.3 percent of the vote. Results from 600 polling stations will be set aside because of possible irregularities, and there will be recounts at some stations
Afghans have voted in two elections. As a historical footnote, no one ever asked them if they wanted US-style democracy. The US imposed it, backed by military force. The significance is that the only way to know the kind of government the Afghans prefer is based on behavior, which favors the Taliban in the 12 Pashtun provinces and follows the ethnic leadership in the others. This is a study in democracy, sort of.
Insurgent group Hizbi Islami Gulbuddin (HIG) is working “to find a solution to the Afghan problem” while in contact with Western officials and politicians, said a senior leader, DPA reported today.
John McCreary’s comment: Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is the ultimate political opportunist. His overtures to Kabul signify his assessment that political change may be imminent. For example, over the weekend, news services reported Karzai’s promise to amnesty the Taliban who want it. Hekmatyar could be positioning himself to take advantage of an amnesty so as to be a leader in a reconstituted government some months in the future.
NW assesses that political power sharing is in limina. With a few compromises by the Taliban, they could be sharing power in Kabul. Karzai also seems to sense it because military victory is possible by neither side and Afghans are tiring of eight more years of conflict, now about to enter its 30th year since the Soviet invasion. His behavior shows that he has no confidence in US political backing and is becoming openly hostile. His fallback position is to deal with his native Pashtuns.
Afghanistan’s only period of relative peace – from large scale civil war — was during the Taliban rule between 1996 and 2001, but even then the Taliban fought desultory operations against the Tajiks and Uzbeks. In the early years, prior to the invitation for the Saudi terrorists to come to Afghanistan from Sudan, the Taliban mantra was that they were the bringers of peace and law and order. And it was true. A peace agenda could unite Karzai and Mullah Omar without much change by either side.
Power sharing is relatively peaceful, but not permanent. One side always tries to breakout and take all the power usually by force. But it can last for years, under skillful management. A power sharing arrangement would provide a time period for the withdrawal of foreign troops, an end state Karzai is starting to share with Omar. They could easily reach agreement on this issue as well, again with small compromises by both sides. Stay tuned. Power sharing talks are coming, after the election is sorted out.
John McCreary’s comment: In the past century, American soldiers have fought all over the world. But no place seems to confuse them more than Afghanistan. Mind, 21,000 more troops is meaningless and purposeless under US military counter-insurgency doctrine.
The difference between a confrontation and a conflict is that a party with no modern military power can win a confrontation and lose every conflict. See GEN Rupert Smith’s, The Utility of Force. The Allies are not losing any conflicts; they are losing the confrontation, i.e., the consent of the governed. Karzai embodies this. We don’t seem to want him, but he lives in Afghanistan and he does not seem to want us, which is a much more serious condition for us.
Iran: Authorities from the judiciary closed the office of defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi and seized documents, ILNA reported, citing a Karroubi spokesman. Disks, computers and films were taken from the northern Tehran office, and Karroubi and others were told to leave the building, said a spokesman.
John McCreary’s comment: Ahmadinejad’s electoral victory has increased the regime’s tendency towards despotism under the fiction of an Islamic republic. All the candidates who lost in the election are suffering punishment or harassment. Something about the nature of elected representative government operating under rule of law did not translate well into Persian. Despotism, the Persians almost invented it.
Israel-Syria-Lebanon-Hezbollah: Amos Gilad, a top advisor to Defense Minister Barak, said today that Syria may not be able to curb Lebanon’s Hezbollah guerillas, Reuters reported. Gilad added that Iran’s influence over Hezbollah appears to be far greater than that of Syria. “Hezbollah is an entity. ’Hezbollahstan’ is much more powerful than Lebanon itself,” Gilad said.
Gilad also said that in the past Israel could have made a deal with Syria because it could persuade Hezbollah to give up terror, but now he said he doubts that Syria has enough influence over Hezbollah to do this.
Gilad obviously is baiting Syria to prove it still has clout with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. He also is building the Israeli case that Iran threatens Israel on many levels and on three fronts: missiles; arms and advisory support to Hezbollah, and arms and advisory support to Hamas in Gaza.
No reputable authority has denied Gilad’s accusations or refuted his assessment.
Russia-Belarus: The Russian Defense Ministry stated that Russia and Belarus initiated a large-scale military exercise with 12,500 combined service personnel, 40 aircraft, and 200 pieces of military equipment and hardware, RIA Novosti reported today. The exercise, called Zapad (translated, West) 2009, is taking place in Russia and Belarus and will end 29 September.
Developed jointly by the general staffs of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces, the defensive drills will include dealing with the integrated air defense system, armed conflicts, natural and man-caused disasters, strategic deterrence and security of the Russia-Belarus Union State. Ria Novosti did not mention that the central feature of the exercise is the defense of Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave, whose land borders are surrounded by Lithuania, a NATO country. Kaliningrad is supplied by a rail line that runs through Lithuania from Minsk, Belarus and by sea. A major portion of Zapad 2009 involves Russian naval operations in the Baltic.
In short, Kaliningrad cannot be defended realistically without starting a conflict with Lithuania, or, in other words, NATO. How so? NATO is the only likely enemy in a “Zapad” exercise, as it has been in every exercise in the Zapad series since the 1980s. Thus, Russia and Belarus are rehearsing in Zapad 2009 operations to recapture by force the Baltic members of NATO under the guise of defending Kaliningrad, or so one could conclude.
Update on the Arctic Sea: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on Tuesday rejected press speculation that a hijacked Russian-crewed freighter was carrying S-300 missiles destined for Iran. Lavrov said the rumors of S-300s on board the Arctic Sea were “completely untrue.”
He said the freighter Arctic Sea was seized by pirates in the Baltic Sea in late July after leaving a Finnish port. Russian naval vessels intercepted the ship weeks later off Cape Verde, thousands of kilometers from the Algerian port where it was purportedly supposed to deliver a load of timber. The investigation continues.
