PlanetRussell.net | Michael J. Russell

AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 8/31/09

About this post: The post below is my edited summary of John McCreary’s informative, unclassified/open source NightWatch Global Intelligence Update.

NightWatch is published by AFCEA, the Armed Forces Communications & Electronics Assn. of which I am a member. Past editions of NightWatch are archived here in their entirety on AFCEA’s site.

UPDATES BY COUNTRY:

Japan: The Defense Ministry announced a 176.1 billion-yen ($1.88 billion) request of 4,846 billion yen ($51.7 billion) to build a ballistic missile shield, the Ministry announced 31 August, according to Kyodo News. The request is a reaction to the North Korean rocket launches earlier in 2009. The overall proposal, for fiscal year 2010, is a 3 percent increase over the initial budget. The Ministry also wants to build a helicopter-carrying destroyer and to buy 58 tanks to replace vehicles deployed more than 30 years ago.

The Defense Ministry apparently wants to register its requirements before domestic issues can bog down the new Democratic Party administration.

The Foreign Ministry announced it will investigate a Japan – U.S. secret accord on allowing nuclear weapons into Japanese territory after Yukio Hatoyama is inaugurated as prime minister, Vice Foreign Minister Mitoji Yabunaka told a news conference today, also reported by Kyodo News. The remark is a shift from the government’s longstanding position of denying the existence of such a pact. The covert pact allegedly allows nuclear-armed U.S. ships and planes to make port calls or fly over in Japan.

The national security bureaucracy is weighing in early, before the new administration is inaugurated. Expect the new administration to make changes cautiously, but it needs early results that distinguish it from the Liberal Democratic Party government, turned out after 54 years.

India-China: China violated Indian airspace 21 June when two helicopters dropped canned food in a barren region at Chumar, northeast of Leh, along the border, Indian Express reported 31 August, citing an Indian Army spokesperson. “It has happened. This is confirmed. But there is nothing alarming in it,” said Col. Kachari of the army’s Northern Command.

Perhaps more alarming is a development at the eastern end of the Himalayas. In August, a weekly Chinese publication devoted to international affairs stated Chinese claims to “southern Tibet”, which is now part of Indian national territory. The journal article rejected Indian claims that the McMahon Line is now demarcated, instead of the disputed boundary trace between China and India, among other assertions.

For reasons that are not yet clear, the Chinese appear to be putting pressure on India along the two disputed regions of the Himalayas – in the Aksai Chin area in far northeastern Kashmir and north of Assam in eastern India. Chinese pressure in these disputed regions is always a reminder to India to not press Pakistan too hard on security issues. Pakistan is China’s primary proxy in South Asia.

Turkey: Preparations at Incirlik Air Base are under way for the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, DPA reported 31 August, citing Turkish newspaper Aksam. Approximately 100,000 of 140,000 U.S. troops in Iraq will return to the United States. U.S. forces are preparing prefabricated housing for the withdrawal that will begin in December.

For those who thought the US was staying for a long time, the Turks don’t [seem to] agree.

Gabon: Defense Minister and presidential candidate Ali-ben Bongo Ondimba declared victory 31 August in the 30 August presidential election, Bloomberg reported. Bongo, whose father, Omar Bongo, ruled Gabon for more than 40 years, claimed to have received results from nine regions in Gabon indicating he won the election, though official results are not set to be released until 2 September.

The younger Bongo had no serious opposition. Democracy in Gabon has created another dynasty.