AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 8/3/09
About this post: The post below is my edited summary of John McCreary’s informative and valuable, unclassified/open source NightWatch Global Intelligence Update.
NightWatch is published by AFCEA, the Armed Forces Communications & Electronics Assn. of which I am a member. Past editions of NightWatch are archived here in their entirety on AFCEA’s site.
UPDATES BY COUNTRY:
Australia: Tonight’s good news. Police foiled terrorist plans for commando-style suicide attacks on at least one army base, arresting four men Tuesday with suspected links to the Somali Islamist group, al Shabaab, senior officers said.
Some 400 officers from state and national security services took part in 19 pre-dawn raids on properties in Melbourne, Australia’s second largest city, and arrested four men, all Australian citizens ranging in age from 22 to 26, police said.
Several others were being questioned Tuesday, police said.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said the plot was a “sober reminder” that Australia is still under threat from extremist groups enraged that the country sent troops to join the U.S.-led military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. Australia has not experienced a terrorist attack since 9/11 in the US, but Australians have been the victims, if not the targets, of terrorist attacks in other countries, primarily Indonesia.
North Korea-US: Update. Former U.S. President Clinton was to visit North Korea later Tuesday, 4 August, to win the release of two detained American journalists. The Chosun Ilbo, citing an unidentified diplomatic source, reported that Clinton is en route Pyongyang on a chartered plane. The newspaper did not publish other details, but reported the U.S. government will soon make an announcement.
Most press commentaries have predicted that North Korea would manipulate the treatment of the journalists in order to engage in direct talks with the US. If that is the North’s handling strategy, it is not apparent. The remarkable characteristic of the detention case is the North has not politicized it overtly, has not propagandized it and, as near as can be determined, has handled the case with strict adherence to its laws.
The detention case resides in the backdrop of more provocative North Korea actions, but it has not even been as a pressure point. There are many possible, plausible explanations for the treatment strategy, ranging from uncommon sophistication in handling the US; to lack of leadership attention to the issue; to professional management by the handful of American handlers in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This is the fourth North Korean opening in two weeks.
Pakistan: The Daily Times reported Prime Minister Gilani’s comments today about the significance of the Supreme Court ruling against Musharraf’s 3 November 2007 emergency declaration. Gilani informed the National Assembly in his policy statement on Monday that it would help block military interventions in the future and prevent their purported validation by judges, which all Pakistani military leaders have sought after taking power.
“The judgment has upheld the supremacy of parliament and has given full credit to present democratic government’s stance. The SC judgment would go a long way towards strengthening democratic institutions and block any unconstitutional usurpation of the people’s rights of governance,” he added. He said the verdict had also amended the ‘Code of Conduct’ for judges, notifying that any judge validating the unconstitutional acts of usurpers would be liable for misconduct. “Thus it is heartening that facilitators would also be collaborators, and disrupting constitutional rule and democratic dispensation would be punishable in future,” he said.
In a separate development, the Attorney General, Sardar Latif Khosa, said today his official opinion that former president Musharraf can be tried on charges of high treason if parliament passes a resolution by simple majority.
This looks like a full court press by the civilian government to use every power at its disposal to deter another military takeover of government. It is an unprecedented show of unity against the military propensity to substitute its judgment for that of the elected government.
The Pakistan Army has yet to make a statement. There are no parties with “clean hands” in this political system. Musharraf said he has no plans to return to Pakistan soon … assuming he is not charged before the International Criminal Court,
NATO-Russia: The new NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said today that the alliance will push for a “partnership” with Russia while expecting Moscow’s respect for its neighbors, Itar-Tass reported. “My goal is to develop a true strategic partnership with Russia, while of course realizing that there might be differences in our positions in a number of areas,” Rasmussen said.
Comment: Russia is not likely to take kindly to the Secretary General’s comments because the words appear to imply Rasmussen hopes to gain Russian acceptance of NATO’s encroachment in the Russian sphere of influence. That is not a basis for partnership.
Russia is in an expansive, competitive mode with NATO, after NATO broke Serbia by recognizing Kosovo’s independence. The Russians struck back at western poaching in Georgia, the Ukraine, Central Asia and Iran. What basis exists for partnership, unless Rasmussen means NATO will acquiesce to the Russian sphere of influence, which it will not do. His opening statement sounds great, but it borders on being insulting.
The Dane’s in-brief looks off a bit.
NATO-Afghanistan: Rasmussen also said that NATO cannot pursue the security and rebuilding of Afghanistan alone, The Associated Press. The United Nations and European Union must do their share, he said, and it must include both military and civilian involvement.
Rasmussen’s other goal is to improve NATO’s relationship with moderate North African and Middle Eastern countries. So what is the strategic purpose of NATO that makes it the proper agency for nation building and doing good outside Europe, vs. the European Union, say?
Rasmussen needs to find a succinct justification for the rising number of NATO soldiers being killed in Afghanistan before European electorates direct their governments to pull the troops home. This is much more urgent than his goal of internationalizing the Afghanistan adventure.
The outcome of the 20 August Afghan elections will determine European support for the NATO adventure south of the Amu Darya River.
Coup updates: Jordanian press picked up the rumors of an aborted coup in Qatar but had no new information. Prince Bandar has not been reported in public, but neither has additional information about a plot involving him been reported.
Somalia-anti-piracy patrol: A German-flagged cargo ship captured by Somali pirates and held for nearly four months has been released after a ransom was paid, officials say. The Hansa Stavanger cargo ship was seized in April, some 400 miles (645 km) from the Somali port of Kismayu.
A ransom, reportedly some $2.7m, was paid to the pirates. A pirate named Hassan told Reuters news agency: “We are now in Haradheere town. We left the ship after we took the money. I believe it has sailed away.”
A spokesman for the European Union’s anti-piracy mission confirmed that the ship and her crew had been released.
The vessel was under the protection of European naval forces, the spokesman said …. What? The only protection this German ship had was that provided by the promise of a large ransom. Rasmussen also said today he hoped to persuade NATO to maintain a permanent anti-piracy force.
Australia: Tonight’s good news. Police foiled terrorist plans for commando-style suicide attacks on at least one army base, arresting four men Tuesday with suspected links to the Somali Islamist group, al Shabaab, senior officers said.
Some 400 officers from state and national security services took part in 19 pre-dawn raids on properties in Melbourne, Australia’s second largest city, and arrested four men, all Australian citizens ranging in age from 22 to 26, police said.
Several others were being questioned Tuesday, police said.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said the plot was a “sober reminder” that Australia is still under threat from extremist groups enraged that the country sent troops to join the U.S.-led military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. Australia has not experienced a terrorist attack since 9/11 in the US, but Australians have been the victims, if not the targets, of terrorist attacks in other countries, primarily Indonesia.
North Korea-US: Update. Former U.S. President Clinton was to visit North Korea later Tuesday, 4 August, to win the release of two detained American journalists. The Chosun Ilbo, citing an unidentified diplomatic source, reported that Clinton is en route Pyongyang on a chartered plane. The newspaper did not publish other details, but reported the U.S. government will soon make an announcement.
Most press commentaries have predicted that North Korea would manipulate the treatment of the journalists in order to engage in direct talks with the US. If that is the North’s handling strategy, it is not apparent. The remarkable characteristic of the detention case is the North has not politicized it overtly, has not propagandized it and, as near as can be determined, has handled the case with strict adherence to its laws.
The detention case resides in the backdrop of more provocative North Korea actions, but it has not even been as a pressure point. There are many possible, plausible explanations for the treatment strategy, ranging from uncommon sophistication in handling the US; to lack of leadership attention to the issue; to professional management by the handful of American handlers in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This is the fourth North Korean opening in two weeks.
Pakistan: The Daily Times reported Prime Minister Gilani’s comments today about the significance of the Supreme Court ruling against Musharraf’s 3 November 2007 emergency declaration. Gilani informed the National Assembly in his policy statement on Monday that it would help block military interventions in the future and prevent their purported validation by judges, which all Pakistani military leaders have sought after taking power.
“The judgment has upheld the supremacy of parliament and has given full credit to present democratic government’s stance. The SC judgment would go a long way towards strengthening democratic institutions and block any unconstitutional usurpation of the people’s rights of governance,” he added. He said the verdict had also amended the ‘Code of Conduct’ for judges, notifying that any judge validating the unconstitutional acts of usurpers would be liable for misconduct. “Thus it is heartening that facilitators would also be collaborators, and disrupting constitutional rule and democratic dispensation would be punishable in future,” he said.
In a separate development, the Attorney General, Sardar Latif Khosa, said today his official opinion that former president Musharraf can be tried on charges of high treason if parliament passes a resolution by simple majority.
This looks like a full court press by the civilian government to use every power at its disposal to deter another military takeover of government. It is an unprecedented show of unity against the military propensity to substitute its judgment for that of the elected government.
The Pakistan Army has yet to make a statement. There are no parties with “clean hands” in this political system. Musharraf said he has no plans to return to Pakistan soon … assuming he is not charged before the International Criminal Court,
NATO-Russia: The new NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said today that the alliance will push for a “partnership” with Russia while expecting Moscow’s respect for its neighbors, Itar-Tass reported. “My goal is to develop a true strategic partnership with Russia, while of course realizing that there might be differences in our positions in a number of areas,” Rasmussen said.
Comment: Russia is not likely to take kindly to the Secretary General’s comments because the words appear to imply Rasmussen hopes to gain Russian acceptance of NATO’s encroachment in the Russian sphere of influence. That is not a basis for partnership.
Russia is in an expansive, competitive mode with NATO, after NATO broke Serbia by recognizing Kosovo’s independence. The Russians struck back at western poaching in Georgia, the Ukraine, Central Asia and Iran. What basis exists for partnership, unless Rasmussen means NATO will acquiesce to the Russian sphere of influence, which it will not do. His opening statement sounds great, but it borders on being insulting.
The Dane’s in-brief looks off a bit.
NATO-Afghanistan: Rasmussen also said that NATO cannot pursue the security and rebuilding of Afghanistan alone, The Associated Press. The United Nations and European Union must do their share, he said, and it must include both military and civilian involvement.
Rasmussen’s other goal is to improve NATO’s relationship with moderate North African and Middle Eastern countries. So what is the strategic purpose of NATO that makes it the proper agency for nation building and doing good outside Europe, vs. the European Union, say?
Rasmussen needs to find a succinct justification for the rising number of NATO soldiers being killed in Afghanistan before European electorates direct their governments to pull the troops home. This is much more urgent than his goal of internationalizing the Afghanistan adventure.
The outcome of the 20 August Afghan elections will determine European support for the NATO adventure south of the Amu Darya River.
Coup updates: Jordanian press picked up the rumors of an aborted coup in Qatar but had no new information. Prince Bandar has not been reported in public, but neither has additional information about a plot involving him been reported.
Somalia-anti-piracy patrol: A German-flagged cargo ship captured by Somali pirates and held for nearly four months has been released after a ransom was paid, officials say. The Hansa Stavanger cargo ship was seized in April, some 400 miles (645 km) from the Somali port of Kismayu.
A ransom, reportedly some $2.7m, was paid to the pirates. A pirate named Hassan told Reuters news agency: “We are now in Haradheere town. We left the ship after we took the money. I believe it has sailed away.”
A spokesman for the European Union’s anti-piracy mission confirmed that the ship and her crew had been released.
The vessel was under the protection of European naval forces, the spokesman said …. What? The only protection this German ship had was that provided by the promise of a large ransom. Rasmussen also said today he hoped to persuade NATO to maintain a permanent anti-piracy force.
