AFCEA Global Intelligence Update: 1/19/09
About this post: Below is my edited summary of John McCreary’s immensely informative and valuable, unclassified NightWatch Global Intelligence Update. NightWatch is published by AFCEA, the Armed Forces Communications & Electronics Assn., of which I am a member. Past editions of NightWatch are archived here in their entirety on AFCEA’s site.
Summary: A relatively light security news night, prior to the U.S. presidential inauguraton Tuesday. More on the Israel-Gaza truce with an analysis of tactics used, along with new developments in Chad.
Highlights, by Country
North Korea (DPRK):
News services have reported no new developments related to the North’s change in readiness condition and threats against South Korea. The South Korean forces are on alert and that is likely to deter the North Koreans. The South Korean Navy is ready for a grudge match against the North off the west coast and has far superior capabilities.
Israel:
Separately, Israel and Hamas have announced temporary truces. The Israelis announced they have begun a gradual withdrawal of ground forces, but remain ready to resume the fighting. Political contests in Israel and in Gaza will replace battlefield reporting for a while.
AFCEA NightWatch Analyst McCreary supports the Strategypage.com account of the fighting.
- The Israelis were better prepared than Hamas expected.
- Hamas was caught by surprise.
- Tactics that it borrowed from Lebanese Hezbollah failed because the Hamas fighters were poorly trained, less disciplined and less dedicated.
- Most of the estimated 20,000 Hamas fighters, some of whom were Iranian trained, ran away rather than fight the Israelis.
- Israel appears to have damaged Hamas physically and psychologically.
Israel fought as if it were a war, which it was, and imposed damage in that context. That means the Israelis declined to fight according to terms set by the UN or Hamas propaganda. The result is that 13 Israeli soldiers died, four from friendly fire, and more than 1,300 Arabs died.
The effects are likely to be temporary, depending on whether Israel and its friend can prevent resupply of Hamas. Moreover, Hamas leaders remain determined to destroy Israel. Rocket attacks will continue, but Israel might have found a formula for administering behavioral modification techniques to the Palestinians in Gaza again and again, until they conclude Hamas is not their best choice for local leaders. Hamas leaders failed the Palestinians. The Israelis won this round.
Chad:
Leaders from Chad’s eight main rebel groups have signed an agreement to join together in an alliance called the Union of Resistance Forces, Agence France-Presse reported today, citing rebel leader Ali Gueddei. General Mahamat Nouri, leader of one of the eight groups, said the alliance is a “big step” toward the goal of toppling Chadian President Idriss Deby’s government. Expect another series of raids against capital city N’Djamena.
